Best MLB Betting Picks and Parlay - Thursday May 11, 2023

Dimers.com is teaming up with Calling Our Shot for the year to provide bettors with the very best MLB picks from the COS crew, sourced from the Dimers' MLB Best Bets page to deliver our best MLB parlay of the day. Every week from Monday to Friday, Austin and Logan from Calling Our Shot will be using the power of our predictive analytics models to find their best plays at the ballpark, combining them into a three-leg parlay. Read on for the team's full analysis of our MLB parlay for Thursday, May 11.

MORE: Dimers.com's MLB Best Bets for Thursday

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MLB Best Bet Parlay For Thursday, May 11

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Padres/Twins Alt. Total Over 6.5 Runs	-250
White Sox/Royals Alt. Total Under 11.5 Runs	-260
Diamondbacks Alt. Run Line +2.5	-235

PARLAY BUILDER: Generate an MLB props lotto parlay with our AI Parlay Picker tool

Thursday MLB Parlay Analysis

San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins, 1:11 PM ET

LEG 1: OVER 6.5 runs (-250) with DraftKings

In our video, we took the full game over 8 runs for this game, so it makes sense we’re comfortable taking the alternate 6.5 over line as well.

Ober is due some hard regression even with his sub-1 ERA. The Padres were terrible with runners in scoring position yesterday but today they will be more efficient. 

The Twins will get hits and runs up on Yu Darvish who starts for the Padres today. Darvish has a road ERA of 4.50, so there is evidence he can be touched-up in a road start.

Darvish also has six walks in two road starts so he could put on free baserunners via walk. Can the Twins be plate-disciplined enough to draw walks today? I say yes and I see at least seven runs being scored in this matchup.

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Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals, 2:11 PM ET

LEG 2: UNDER 11.5 Runs (-260) with DraftKings

On paper, this matchup screams over. But I feel that both of these pitchers will put up surprisingly good showings today. 

Starting for the Royals is Brady Singer and his 8.82 ERA. The main problem for Singer this year is his inability to miss bats.

The White Sox offense will provide Singer some 0-2 counts, it’s just up to him to get the swing and miss. His hard hit percentage is 60% as well which is something that I think regresses today against a White Sox team that ranks 26th in hard hit percentage.

Clevinger starts for the White Sox today. His 4.84 ERA looks a little high on paper but I think he’s in line for a solid start. Clevinger is able to get strikeouts which is something this Royals team struggles with.

The Royals also put up nine runs yesterday. That screams that they’re due a cool-down game and I think this is a great spot for it.

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San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:41 PM ET

LEG 3: Diamondbacks +2.5 (-235) with DraftKings

For the final leg of the parlay, I call upon the Diamondbacks to not get blown out. I feel like we aren’t asking for much to have the Diamondbacks keep this game close and win outright OR lose by two or fewer runs.

Tommy Henry will pitch for Arizona. He’s a lefty. The Giants are 23rd in Batting Average vs. Left Handed Pitchers. I am not confident they can get to Henry today.

The Diamondbacks have won all three of Henry’s starts. Today, we aren’t asking for an outright win, just +2.5, please and thank you.

Alex Cobb will start for the Giants. He enters with a 2.01 ERA & 1.25 WHIP. He’s coming off a 7 IP, 0 ER start vs. the Brewers. I don’t see a duplication of that today.

The Diamondbacks have seen Cobb a good amount. Four Players on Arizona have 10+ Plate Appearances vs. Cobb, and all have good splits. I am confident the DBacks keep this one close.

The Giants have the third-worst bullpen ERA in the MLB. They will give us some chances if this one gets out of hand.

I believe in you, Diamondbacks.

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Thursday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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