Best Home Run Props Today for BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - 6/1/24

It's the weekend with MLB on deck which means it's time for plenty of home runs! We've got dozens of home run props available on full slate gamedays and we're highlighting two of our strongest HR probabilities for today.

If you're not aware, BetMGM Sportsbook has a sweet baseball promo every weekend centered around home run props. 

Here's the skinny: bet $10 on any player to hit a home run in any game of your choosing. Once you make your bet, you'll be automatically entered into their $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot. If that player hits a grand slam in that game, you'll win your share of a $50,000 bonus bet prize pool, split amongst all qualifying users. Read the full contest details here, as broken down by Dimers.

Even better? The jackpot resets each day, so you can get three swings at a grand payout each and every weekend.

And that's still not all! If you don't have BetMGM yet, not only will your first $10 home run bet enter you into the $50,000 jackpot pool, you'll also receive three months of Dimers Pro access, courtesy of us and BetMGM.

RELATED: Unlock 3 Months of Complementary Dimers Pro Access

Who Will Hit a Home Run This Weekend?

While we can do our best to narrow down the ideal home urn picks by combining our Dimers Pro home run data, park factors and pitching matchups, we are largely at the mercy of the baseball and gambling gods to wind up in a grand slam situation, even with 44 grand slams hit already this year, 24 of them coming in the Grand Slam Jackpot promotional period, resulting in over $1,000,000 in bonus bets awarded this season, per BetMGM.

However, we can use a couple common sense factors to give us a slight leg up when making our pick of the day. Here are a few things to consider:

High Home Run Probability: This one is straightforward - pick players with the strongest chance to hit a home run. You're not looking for value here as much as you are looking for the most likely players.

Pitching Matchups: A key factor for any baseball bet, pitching matchups can reveal a lot about a player's home run chances. You'll want pitchers with a high WHIP - the more likely they are to allow runners on base, the more likely you are to see a grand slam. Similarly, you'll want a batter who performs well against righties or lefties based on the starter, and bullpens that allow lots of hits and home runs make good targets, too.

Middle of the Order: You can't hit a grand slam without getting to the plate and guys getting on base ahead of you. For that reason, you'll typically want players who are most likely to see guys on base and who are set up to see more at-bats. The further down the batting order you go, the more you move away from the ideal targets.

Best Home Run Picks - Saturday, June 1

As mentioned, you'll want to use the above factors to identify which players you want to back for your Grand Slam Jackpot entry. Below, you'll find the two hitters we've selected based on those criteria, but don't forget to check out all of the selection in Dimers Pro to see if someone stands out to you.

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) to Hit a Home Run (+450)

One of MLB's top home run hitters, Gunnar Henderson does bat at the top of the Orioles' order, but that didn't stop him from clearing the bases with a grand slam just two days ago. Three of the four guys who typically bat in the bottom of the Orioles' lineup have an OBP of .273 or greater, with two of them (Cowser, Urias) over .300. 

Henderson gets a 20..6% probability to go yard today, giving us value on his own as a home run play at +450 on BetMGM. He's up against the Rays' Taj Bradley (3 HR in 4 starts) and the Rays' league-worst bullpen for HR allowed at 33.

⚾ Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+525)

Our second recommendation is another slugger with an edge in his home run prop, and one of the league's hottest HR hitters right now with eight homers in his past ten games. Seager typically hits second for the Rangers gets Marcus Semien (.324 OBP) and three hitters at the bottom of the lineup with a .288 OBP or better.

Seager draws a 19.7% probability to hit a home run (fair odds of +400), and gets a matchup with Ryan Weathers who's allowed 7 homers this year, though all to righties while Seager is a lefty.

⚾ Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.