Best College Football Bets: Three Underdogs to Bet on in Week 4

The college football season rolls into Week 4 and we're looking at which teams are best positioned for an upset win with our "Dogs of the Day" article.

Each week, we'll highlight three underdogs that our model not only likes to cover the spread, but also to win outright at plus money. We've seen strong results through the first two weeks and we're looking to keep that going.

RELATED: Our Week 4 College Football Game by Game Predictions

These picks will come straight from our Dimers Pro College Football Best Bets, a part of our subscription service that grants you access to every single bet on our site for every sport, every single day. You'll also get unlimited access to our player projections, Parlay Picker and Trends tools and of course, an invite to the Dimers Pro VIP Discord where we are cashing tickets like crazy, including one user who turned just $10 into over $13,000 last week and where we went 10-1 with our Dimers Platinum college football picks in Week 3.

Dimers' Early-Season College Football Success

As mentioned, it's been a strong start to the college football season for Dimers, especially if you are a Dimers Pro or Dimers Platinum subscriber. Platinum, in particular, is going off, with our AI Betting Picks going at a 76% Accuracy rate on College Football Bets last week.

We post our Top 5 CFB bets and props each game day in our Dimers pro VIP Discord, as well as our "Dogs of the Day" on Saturdays.

We post recaps each day and track all our results for complete transparency, so you can see for yourself that we're finding plenty of success in the early days of the season.

Don't miss out the rest of the year - join Dimers Pro for less than $1/day and start cashing with us!

Dimers CFB Underdogs are off to a strong start.

Our Best College Football Underdog Picks in Week 4

Pick 1: Minnesota WIN vs. Iowa (+115)

The Golden Gophers host the Iowa Hawkeyes as they bring a 2-1 record into this homestand with an Iowa team that's looking a bit different from last year. After averaging barely 15 points per game last season, the Hawkeyes have put up 38 and 40 points in their two wins.

As just 2.5-point underdogs, Minnesota is actually favored by our model to win this game at a 54% win probability. It's a close win, with Minnesota winning by just 1 in our average final score, but a clear value play based on their plus-money odds and our greater than 50% win probability. 

They're a great play to cover at a 57% probability, too, notably so with their best odds of -105 nearly even money (50% implied). The key looks to be Minnesota limiting Iowa's scoring and holding them to just 17 points, their lowest output of the season. With our fair odds for Minnesota to win at -115, you can see why they're a top play at +115 odds.

🏈 Iowa vs. Minnesota Full Game Betting Preview

Pick 2: Southern Methodist WIN vs. TCU (+130)

Our next underdog is on the Southern Methodist Mustangs to pull off the upset when the TCU Horned Frogs come to town.

SMU comes into this game as 3-point underdogs and at +130 on the moneyline. Their defense has been the star coming into this game, limiting teams to 16.3 PPG so far compared to TCU's 20.7 PPG.

SMU gets the nod from DimersBOT with a 50.4% win probability, translating to fair odds of about +100. While 50% effectively makes this one a coin flip according to our model, when you consider that TCU's odds of -142 imply a 58% probability, you can see they're much more overpriced as opposed to SMU.

We say SMU shouldn't be any longer than +100, identifying a substantial 6.9% edge in their moneyline odds.

🏈 TCU vs. Southern Methodist Full Game Betting Preview

Pick 3: Coastal Carolina WIN vs. Virginia (+150)

The final dog of the day might be under a 50% win probability but we still say the books are off on this one.

Coastal Carolina has won all three of its games to start the year and has won its last six contests as an underdog against unranked teams. Virginia has struggled against unranked teams early in the year in recent seasons and may still be reeling from blowing a halftime lead against Maryland last week.

Presently, Coastal to cover the 3.5-point spread is a great play on its own at 58.2% and favorable odds of -108 at FanDuel, but their 47.4% win probability vs. Virginia implies odds of +110 while we can get them at +150 for a 7.4% edge.

🏈 Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina Full Game Betting Preview

+1136 Week 4 College Football Underdogs Parlay

If you're feeling really adventurous, you can play these three underdogs into a single parlay that clocks in at +1136 odds.

As a regular college football bettor, I personally recommend playing these as straight bets, and then sprinkling a small amount on the parlay. If you put 1 unit on each Moneyline, I wouldn't go higher than .25U on the parlay as it comes with much more risk.

Dimers' College Football Betting Resources for the 2024 Season

• CFB Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 4 matchup
• CFB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• CFB Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NCAA Championship Odds: Who will win it all this year?
• CFB Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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