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Bears vs. Patriots Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Monday Night Football on October 24, 2022
The New England Patriots will feel like a Monday Night Football meeting with the Chicago Bears at 8:15PM ET on October 24 is a golden opportunity for them to get over .500. Bill Belichick's team also appears to be getting Mac Jones back under center, and that should be a boost for this squad.
Find out how we think this one will play out in our Bears vs. Patriots betting preview.
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Bears vs. Patriots Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 52% chance the Patriots cover the -8.0 spread
- 81% chance the Patriots win on the moneyline
- 50% chance Bears vs. Dolphins stays Under 40
For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Bears vs. Patriots data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Bears vs. Patriots Odds and Betting Lines
Why The Bears Will Cover The Spread
Although Justin Fields (54.8 percent completion rate, four touchdowns, five interceptions) and his supporting cast in the passing game shouldn’t create too many headaches for the Patriots, the Bears’ ground attack is another story.
Fields’ QB rating through six games isn’t pretty (72.7), but he’s a legitimate threat when using his legs with 282 yards rushing. As long as the Bears don’t fall behind, they can hang close behind Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery, who have 403 and 246 yards, respectively.
MORE: NFL Futures Probabilities
Why The Patriots Will Cover The Spread
New England is 4-1 against the spread over the past five games and showing major improvement on the defensive side of the ball, shutting out Detroit and holding Cleveland to two scores — well below both of those opponents’ season averages.
On the flip side, Chicago has allowed 23 sacks and its defense has been inconsistent.
Bailey Zappe has completed 73 percent of his passes with a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while running back Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. And the Pats might not even have to play Zappe, as Mac Jones' return is on the horizon. He's a more dangerous passer than Zappe is.
Why The Over Will Hit
Even though the Bears have struggled to keep the scoreboard operators busy, they’re capable of hitting a home run with downfield threats Darnell Mooney and Dante Pettis. The latter has scoring receptions of 51 and 40 yards; Mooney catches of at least 26 yards in each of the past three games.
In addition, the Patriots’ offense is just starting to click under Matt Patricia, the de-facto coordinator following Josh McDaniels’ departure to Las Vegas. New England ranks in the upper half of the league in total offense (13th) at 354.7 yards per game.
RELATED: Full betting previews for every NFL game
Why The Under Will Hit
Only four teams are racking up fewer yards per game than Chicago’s 293.7, and the Bears 15.5-points per game average is next-to-last ahead of only the Broncos by a hair.
Defensively, the Bears are having trouble stopping the run which could lead to both offenses moving the chains and burning clock methodically. Chicago ranks 29th in run defense, yielding 163 yards per game, and had trouble with Green Bay’s Aaron Jones (132 yards, one TD), the Giants’ Saquon Barkley (146 yards) and Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook (96 yards, two TDs) in road matchups.
Bears vs. Patriots Prediction
Lean: Patriots -8.5
New England’s defense has played lights-out the past two weeks while Chicago is scuffling. Leaning towards the Pats to win by double digits.
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Tony Bellissimo, with over 25 years of sports reporting and editing experience, has earned multiple New York State Press Association awards and oversees sports coverage for 30 high schools and several colleges on Long Island.
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