Analyzing Value in Possible NBA Finals Rematches: Heat-Lakers, Bucks-Suns and Celtics-Warriors

*Updated 4/25/23 at 10:00am ET to reflect Heat, Lakers victories

 

The 2023 NBA Finals are delivering all the drama and intensity we could ask for. Down-to-the-wire matchups, a Warriors squad looking to avoid a Western Conference series loss for the first time since 2014 and the LeBron James-Dillon Brooks beef we all saw coming.

As things stand, the Sixers are the only team to wrap up their first round, with a series sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, though not without a cost, as likely MVP Joel Embiid sustained a knee sprain in their Game 3 win. Coach Doc Rivers gave the superstar “a 50% chance” to be ready for Round 2 against the Celtics, or Hawks should they pull off the improbable.

RELATED: The Time to Bet the Lakers is Now

With every series at Game 4 or beyond in Round 1, we’re looking at the chances of a possible NBA Finals rematch from each of the past three seasons. We’ll break down the best odds, as well as the probability for each based on our AI model’s predictive analytics. Utilizing 1000s of simulations, we can determine if there’s any value to be had in betting these matchups.

To capitalize on the value we may find in this market, be sure to take advantage of the sign-up bonuses offered by the best sportsbooks available to you. DraftKings is giving new users $150 in bonus bets after their first $5 wager, whereas BetMGM will give you up to $1,000 back on your first bet if it loses. Use our Best Sportsbooks page to see every offer you can use.

Possible NBA Finals Rematches

These are the Finals matchups from the last three seasons, and fortunately for us, all six teams are still in play. Our analysis will start with 2020 and work forward.

2022 Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors +759 on DraftKings (was +975)

2021 Finals: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns +1070 on DraftKings (was +652)

2020 Finals: Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers +12250 on FanDuel (was +32700)

NBA Conference Champion Futures  (as of 4/24/23)

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers – 2020 NBA Finals

The Original: Although COVID-19 resulted in a disrupted, condensed and all-around unprecedented NBA season, LeBron James’ first season in purple and gold resulted in an NBA title for the Lakers, defeating the Heat in six games.

The Rematch: The Lakers jumped out to an early lead in their opening series with the Timberwolves, and now sit with a 2-1 advantage heading into Game 4. Our model has identified the Lakers as a plus-value bet to win the title, giving them a major edge in the odds. Another play-in survivor, the Heat drew a tough matchup with the top-seeded Bucks, who are dealing with an injury to star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both Miami and Los Angeles have a chance to take a 3-1 first-round lead.

Analysis: The least likely of the three possible rematches. The Heat’s implied probability based on their +4000 odds is 2.44%, but our model gives them more than double that chance at 5.2%, making them a good value. We also give the Lakers a slight edge as well, with their implied probability sitting at 12.5%. At monster odds of +32700 on FanDuel, (compared to +16950 on DraftKings) we absolutely recommend placing a little sprinkle on a Lakers-Heat rematch.

Game 4 update: We told you this price was too high. Both the Heat and Lakers won on Monday to bring their respective series leads to 3-1. Now at +12250 on FanDuel, the Heat have seen their Eastern Conference odds cut in half to +2000, while the Lakers saw a slight bump down to +550 to win the West.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns – 2021 NBA Finals

The Original: Chris Paul made his first-ever NBA Finals appearance after the Suns torched their way through the Western Conference playoffs. The Bucks were able to outlast a brief injury to Giannis to edge out the Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals, before pulling a reverse sweep to win the Finals in six games after an 0-2 deficit to start.

The Rematch: The Suns again added a big-time talent, this time in the middle of the season, when they acquired Kevin Durant from the Nets. They had their share of struggles in the regular season but have looked strong so far in Round 1 and look to close out their series with the Clippers in Game 5. The Bucks stare down a potential 3-1 deficit ahead of Game 4 (as of this writing) and will need to put their foot on the gas to avoid an early upset.

RELATED: 2023-24 College Basketball Futures to Bet

Analysis: The lack of value in this matchup is astounding. We give the Bucks just an 18.3% probability to win the Eastern Conference, while the books’ odds of +200 suggest a 33.33% chance. For reference, the Sixers’ have double the odds at +400 with our model’s 24.1% probability. The Suns’ odds suggest over 40%, another major discrepancy with our model.

Do not bet on this matchup as-is. If you really think a Suns-Bucks Finals is likely, you’ll get better value if the Bucks go down 3-1 or 3-2.

Game 4 update: As expected, the Bucks' odds are longer, now at +350 as compared to +200 on Monday. Sporting just an 11.3% chance to win the conference based on our model, their price is still much too short. The value in the rematch is better now, however at +1070, but the Bucks face a very uphill battle out of the first round.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors – 2022 NBA Finals

The Original: Less than a year ago, these teams went toe-to-toe in the NBA Finals. Welcoming back Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry from lengthy absences, the Warriors immediately returned to their upper-echelon form. After surviving two Game 7’s en route to the Finals, the Celtics managed to even the series at 2-2 before the Warriors closed out the final two games to win in six.

The Rematch: One of the best teams in the Association all year, the Celtics have the shortest odds and highest probability to win the title. Healthier than just about every other team, they’ve got the tools to make their run. The Warriors have already overcome a two-game deficit against the Kings and control their destiny in the first round.

Analysis: A rematch gaining steam with the Warriors climbing out of their 2-0 series hole with the Kings. The Celtics’ odds of +120 align with our model’s probability of a 43.3% chance to win the Eastern Conference. The Warriors' odds have dropped from +550 after Game 2 to +350 at the 2-2 tie. Golden State’s fair price should be closer to +420 based on our model’s data-driven projections. However, these are two of the best teams in the NBA on any given day and this matchup has significantly better value than the Bucks-Suns.  

Update: These teams didn't play on Monday, but the results of the other games did move this price down to +759, again showing the value in the matchup yesterday.

Looking for more NBA betting insights? Head over to our Best Props and Best Bets pages to see the top value for daily action, or use our Best Trends feature to find your own plays to target. If you want to cook up a parlay for a larger payout, try our Parlay Picker tool to get creative! Everything we offer is completely free and powered by our state-of-the-art predictive analytics models that run 1000s of simulations to help you make the most informed betting decisions you can.