Analysts announce stunning new Mexico Open favorite after unsung 20-y/o ties course record

The 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta has reached a pivotal moment as the field narrows following Friday's cut. Hosted at the picturesque Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course in Vallarta, Mexico, the tournament has already showcased remarkable talent and unexpected turns.

Defending champion Jake Knapp (-3) returned with hopes of retaining his title, while emerging stars like Akshay Bhatia (-10) and Karl Vilips (-3) entered the tournament with compelling storylines—Bhatia aiming to cement his status as a rising force on tour and Vilips making his professional debut after signing with Tiger Woods’ Sun Day Red brand. 

While Bhatia has put in a strong showing, tied for 5th at -10, it's the 198th-ranked Aldrich Potgieter who has delivered the Mexico Open's biggest surprise.

On Friday, the 20-year-old South African built a four-stroke lead on the back of a 10-under 61. In the process Potgieter became the fourth youngest player ever to record a 61 or under at a PGA-sanctioned event, and tied Vidanta's course record.

In light of this stunning performance, and accounting for the Mexico Open's now-finalized weekend field and Saturday tee times, our data analysts re-ran their Mexico Open simulations Friday evening, revealing a wildly unexpected new favorite.

Updated Mexico Open Leaderboard After 36 Holes

Updated Mexico Open PGA Winning Probabilties

With the PGA field set for the weekend, Dimers' analysts have provided insights into the most likely outcomes:

Top 3 Contenders

1. Aldrich Potgieter: Comfortably leading the tournament after his spectacular second-round performance, Aldrich Potgieter is currently given an 18.6% chance of winning, according to our simulations. Prior to the tournament, Potgieter's winning probability was below 1%!
2. Aaron Rai: Our second most likely 2025 Mexico Open champion is Aaron Rai at 17.5%. Rai trails Potgieter by five strokes and sits in four place at -11 entering the weekend.
3. Stephan Jaeger: Currently second place and trailing by four strokes, Stephan Jaeger now has the third best chance of winning the Mexico Open, at 17.4%.

For every player's win probability, and Top-5, 10 and 20 placement chances, check out the full list of Mexico Open predictions.

Plus, you can utilize our World Golf Rankings and PGA Head-to-Head tool to further assist your weekend betting needs.

Updated Betting Odds for the Mexico Open

With two rounds in the books, these are the current odds from Bet365, with the win probabilities coming from our analysts simulating the weekend round over 10,000 times.

PGA fans betting on the final rounds of the Mexico Open can enhance these odds with Bet365's existing-user promos for the golf betting in February 2025.

Final Thoughts & How to Watch

As the 2025 Mexico Open progresses into the weekend, the competition intensifies with top golfers vying for the prestigious title. Fans can anticipate thrilling performances and potential upsets.

To help you watch the action unfold this weekend, we have rounded up the broadcast information for golf fans in the US:

• Golf Channel: Live coverage of all tournament rounds.
• NBC: Broadcasts the final hours of each round, starting at 3 PM ET on Saturday and Sunday.
• Streaming: Watch live on Fubo, which includes access to Golf Channel broadcasts.