After 10,000 Tournament Simulations, the Best Bet at the Valero Texas Open Is a Player Who’s Never Won on the PGA Tour

With the 2025 Valero Texas Open teeing off this week at TPC San Antonio, attention is building around the final PGA Tour stop before the Masters. While many bettors lean on familiar names, advanced modeling from Dimers.com—based on 10,000 tournament simulations—has surfaced a smarter, sharper bet: Tommy Fleetwood.

The 2025 Valero Texas Open Preview

Held April 3–6 on the demanding Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, this year’s Valero Texas Open offers one last shot at a Masters invite. For top players already heading to Augusta, it’s a chance to peak at the perfect time. The Greg Norman-designed course measures 7,494 yards, par 72, and tests every club in the bag.

Using 10,000 simulations, Dimers.com projected win probabilities and betting edges for every player in the field—and one name stands out above the rest, with the tee times and latest odds for the Texas Open offering further context ahead of Thursday’s first round.

Expert Insights from 10,000 Simulations of the Valero Texas Open

Tommy Fleetwood, who leads all players with a 7.9% chance to win, offers exceptional value at Bet365’s +1700 odds. Dimers’ model gives him a 2.3% edge over the market, making him the best bet on the board.

Fleetwood hasn’t yet won on the PGA Tour, but he’s come close—and with seven European Tour victories to his name, it’s not a question of talent but timing.

Fleetwood’s 2025 season shows he's trending toward a breakthrough. In his five starts this year, he’s finished:

• T22 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
• T5 – The Genesis Invitational
• T11 – Arnold Palmer Invitational
• T14 – THE PLAYERS Championship
• T16 – Valspar Championship

That consistency across elite fields has Fleetwood knocking on the door. He’s already won seven times on the European Tour, and a PGA title feels increasingly overdue. And with his T3 finish at the 2024 Masters still fresh in memory, there's no better time—or place—for him to finally get it done.

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A High-Value Bet Backed by Data

Fleetwood is more than just a popular pick—he’s a data-backed value bet. Dimers’ golf simulations show his odds are too long relative to his win probability. That gives bettors a rare window of opportunity: a player in great form, priced as if he’s not.

Another name worth watching? Justin Rose to finish top-10. With a model-projected 18.5% probability and Bet365 odds of +800, Rose delivers a 7.4% edge for bettors looking to go deeper into the market.

Best Bet: Tommy Fleetwood to Win the Valero Texas Open

The best bet for the 2025 Valero Texas Open is Tommy Fleetwood to win. With consistent top-25 finishes this season, strong data support, and momentum building just before Augusta, Fleetwood has all the ingredients to capture his first PGA Tour title.

Tommy Fleetwood to Win the 2025 Valero Texas Open

+1700

Bet $25
Payout $450Bet $25, Payout $450

Tournament Details

Everything you need to know about the 2025 Valero Texas Open, the final PGA Tour event before The Masters:

• Tournament Name: Valero Texas Open
• Dates: April 3–6, 2025
• Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,494 yards
• Purse: $9.5 million
• Defending Champion: Akshay Bhatia

Conclusion

The 2025 Valero Texas Open sets the stage for one last storyline before the Masters—and Tommy Fleetwood is ready to take the spotlight. With elite form, a proven track record at majors, and data backing his case, he’s more than a good pick. He’s the best bet.