AFC East Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are now just weeks away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has potential to be our best yet.

Full-fledged preseason is here. This is where we’ll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we’ll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which is proving to be top-quality entertainment.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’ve analyzed each of the eight NFL divisions. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now.

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North

NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South

AFC East Division Preview

Buffalo Bills

2022-23 Record: 13-3, lost in Divsional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Key Offseason Moves: Signed: RB Damien Harris, OT David Quessenberry. Drafted: TE Dalton Kincaid

Outlook: The Bills won their third-straight AFC East title behind an almost-MVP caliber season from Josh Allen and an 11-TD, 1,400+ yard season from Stefon Diggs, before once again coming up short in the playoffs. After retaining most of their key players from last season, they’ll also welcome back OLB Von Miller and a fully healthy CB Tre’Davious White who both suffered ACL injuries (2021 for White).

The favorite to win the division again, the Bills are +130 to capture the fourth-straight AFC East crown. Our predictive analytics model gives them an even 50% chance to do so, which gives us about a 7% edge in the odds which implies closer to a 43% chance. They’re the only team in the division that gets +EV in their odds, which is likely to be a common theme through these previews due to the volatility of the NFL season.

MORE: Best Odds for Every NFL Game

Their win total of 10.5 feels a little short at first glance, although this time it doesn’t include an all-but-guaranteed pair of wins against the New York Jets who will prove to be a tougher opponent this year with Aaron Rodgers under center. Buffalo has hit this total in their last three seasons each time they won the division. They’ve got the seventh-hardest schedule based on their opponent’s win-loss records last season.

Takeaway: As mentioned, there’s clear value in their division odds when compared to our model’s probability. However, unless you’re a larger unit bettor, +130 doesn’t carry much excitement on its own given the other range of outcomes for Buffalo, especially for a ticket you have to hold onto for 4+ months. Their +500 odds to win the AFC are much more appealing, though our model says they should be a touch closer to +600. They have the third-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +900, while our model gives them the fifth-best chance at 8.6%.

If you’re really looking for the best value in the Bills, Josh Allen to win MVP might be the play. Almost always a quarterback award, Allen has been in contention over the past several seasons and has all the tools to get it done. Alternatively, a couple of losses might open up better odds for any of the above down the line.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

New York Jets

2022 Record: 7-10, 4^th place in AFC East

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Key Offseason Moves: Traded for: QB Aaron Rodgers. Signed: WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb

Outlook: If we can quote Hayley Williams from the band Paramore, “things are looking up, oh finally” for the New York Jets. After drafting a pair of stellar first-round rookies in DB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and WR Garrett Wilson (the third pair of teammates to win DROY and OROY in the same season in NFL history) and electric RB Breece Hall in 2022, they went ahead and acquired future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers from the Packers in a blockbuster move, along with his WR buddies Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Make no mistake, the Jets are going for it.

You can feel the vibe change if you look at their social media; from the fans to the team accounts themselves, there’s plenty of A-a-ron Kool-Aid being drunk in the northeast, along with hype for the return of Breece Hall who went down with an ACL injury mid-way through his rookie season. Despite the shortcomings of the team (notably under center with Zach Wilson), they managed a modest 7-10 record, their best since 2019.

DimersBOT gives the Jets a 20% chance to win the division, the third-best chance but they have the second-shortest odds at +270. At +1100 to win the AFC, they’re massively overpriced as our model suggests they should be closer to +2000.

Takeaway: What’s next for the J-E-T-S? The playoffs for the first time since ye' olde Mark Sanchez was under center, hopefully. After finishing at the bottom of the table in seven of their last nine seasons (including three straight), Gang Green will be looking to turn things around and secure their first season over .500 since 2015. Their win total is set at 9.5, with the Over at -130 while the Over for 11.5 wins is a healthy +285.

They managed seven wins with a combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco under center. Aaron Rodgers *should* be good enough for three more wins, though they will have the sixth-most difficult schedule. -130 isn’t an appealing lay, but it’s worth noting it’s identical to their odds to make the playoffs so some plus-money value could emerge if they lose a couple of games early. Feeling spicy? Consider one of their exact wins results, where you can bet them to win exactly 9 or 10 games at +550 apiece.

Breece Hall to win Comeback Player of the Year at +2500 is worth a sprinkle, though if Bills safety Damar Hamlin plays a single down of football, after his remarkable comeback from on-field cardiac arrest, it’s already his. On the chance he doesn’t return, however, Breece’s odds will likely drop below +2000. It’s already lower than his opening price of +3500 on some books.

RELATED: NFC East Division Preview

Miami Dolphins

2022 Record: 9-8, lost in Wild Card Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Key Offseason Moves: Re-signed: RB Jeff Wilson Jr. and RB Raheem Mostert. Traded for: CB Jalen Ramsey

Outlook: It was a mixed bag in 2022 for the Miami Dolphins. They brought in charisma king OC Mike McDaniel from the 49ers to take over as their head coach who led the team to their first playoff appearance since 2016 before coming up short in the Wild Card Round to division rival Buffalo. They were even in play for the division title late into the season, sitting at 8-3 before dropping five of their last six games. The season was marred by multiple concussions to starting QB Tua Tagovailoa and plenty of controversy surrounding Miami’s handling of the situation and prioritizing the game over his health as well.

It wasn’t all middling for the Dolphins, however, as their elitely fast WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for almost 200 catches, over 3,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. With a healthy Tua under center for a full season, it’s possible we haven’t even seen the ceiling for this pair of speedsters.

Our model gives them the second-best chance to win the division with a 25.7% chance to win the AFC East, putting them right in line with their odds of +300. They have the best odds out of the three AFC East teams who have a realistic chance to win the conference (sorry Patriots fans) at +1200, but this team feels like they’re still a step or two away from that level, especially assuming they’ll still have to go through either the Bengals, Bills or Chiefs.

Takeaway: +300 is a pretty appealing price to win the AFC East. With increased competition from the Jets, this division should beat up on itself and keep things relatively tight. The NFL loves their backloaded divisional schedules and the Dolphins will play three of their six divisional games in the last six weeks of the season, including both against the Jets that could very well decide a Wild Card spot. At plus money, the Over 9.5 wins is also a nice bet, and it’s a better price than the -110 on offer for them to make the playoffs. If you’re keen on Miami winning the division but not making it through the postseason, DraftKings has exact results markets, where you can bet them to lose in the Divisional Round at +500 or to lose in the AFC Championship at +1000.

Tua’s struggles with concussions last year stirred up talk of whether or not he could, or even should, continue playing football at all. Behind Damar Hamlin, his Comeback Player of the Year odds of +2000 would make him co-favorites with Russell Wilson which could be worth a sprinkle, though we’d refrain from investing too much in this market with Hamlin currently expected to return to the field.

New England Patriots

2022 Record: 8-9, 3^rd place in AFC East

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Key Offseason Moves: Signed: RB James Robinson, WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, OC Bill O’Brien. Retired: S Devin McCourty

Outlook: These aren’t your daddy’s Patriots, and not in a good way. Unlike the other three teams in the AFC East, the Patriots are fade city in 2023. If you look at the Patriots’ 2022 season in a vacuum, it’s hard to believe they even mustered up eight dubs, especially when this was probably the biggest highlight clip of their entire season. Seriously, we can watch this on endless repeat and never, ever stop laughing. All signs point to them rolling with Mac Jones under center, which is all we need to fade them. Sorry Mac, but you’re just not that guy, pal.

DimersBOT gives the Pats a lowly 4.4% chance to win the division at +800 which implies an 11% chance, a significant difference. Their chances per our model to win the AFC are virtually zero.

Verdict: It’s difficult to imagine they reach the same number of wins when they have stiffer competition in the division than they did last year and are easily the worst team on paper. There are only six teams with longer plus-money odds than the Patriots to make the postseason as they sit at +250.

Our advice? Grab their alternate under of 5.5 wins at +200 or even better, their exact wins at 7 (+500), 6 (+550). Want a really fun bet? The Patriots’ schedule opens like this: @ PHI, @ MIA, vs. NYJ, vs. DAL, @ NO, vs. LV, @ BUF, @ MIA, @ WSH.

That’s a ton of road games in the first half of the season when they don’t have their bye week until Week 11 and we see maybe two wins (Saints and Raiders) in there at face value before they play the Commanders in Week 9. You can get the Pats to be the last winless team at DraftKings for a whopping +2200. In the NFL where anything can happen and a team with a bad QB, you can’t tell us this isn’t entirely possible at those juicy m’fing odds.

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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