AFC Championship Same Game Parlay Picks: Chiefs vs. Bills SGP for Sunday, January 26

We're putting our projections to the test for our AFC Championship Same Game Parlay when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, January 26.

It's the latest edition of Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes, a battle that's always filled with big plays, stunning moments and fierce competition.

Every bet and insight featured in these parlays will be sourced directly from our Dimers Pro data, our all-encompassing subscription service. Dimers Pro features the best NFL bets, NFL player props, Super Bowl LIX predictions, parlay picks and NFL betting trends analyzed by our in-house cutting-edge predictive models.

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+800 Chiefs-Bills Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Chiefs vs. Bills.

MORE: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills AFC Championship Full Betting Preview

Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards

First up, we're backing Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to dial it in via the passing game and tally 250+ yards through the air.

The Chiefs offense was stifled in their regular season meeting with Buffalo, but the playoffs are simply a different atmosphere and the Bills defense was susceptible to monster games at times this year, as well as allowing Lamar Jackson to go over this number in the Divisional Round.

Mahomes has been turnover-free since they played the Bills before Thanksgiving, hitting this mark in 4/7 games since. The Dimers model projects him for 271 yards tonight and we'll take him at the 250+ line.

Leg 2: James Cook 50+ Rushing Yards

Next, we're looking at the Bills' ground game and backing RB James Cook to pick up at least 50 rushing yards, a mark he's hit in both playoff games so far, including against the Ravens' stout run defense last week.

The Bills' commitment to Cook as the RB1 has paid dividend with his second 1,000-yard season in a row, going under 50 yards just 3 times in his final 10 games.

While the Chiefs' sported a Top 10 rushing defense this season, they still gave up 104.4 rushing yards per game and Joe Mixon cruised by this mark last week in a game the Texans trailed from the start.

Cook draws a 65-yard projection from DimersBOT, giving us a nice buffer for 50+.

Leg 3: Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer

The first of two TD scorers in this parlay, we're taking our most likely Anytime TD scorer on the Chiefs to find the end zone.

Travis Kelce had his quietest season in some time, but was he just saving it for the playoffs? He scored a clutch KC TD last week and has 3+ postseason scores in the past five years.

Despite just 3 regular season touchdowns, he led all tight ends in red zone targets with 26 - five more than the next tight ends (George Kittle, Trey McBride), and was third overall in the entire NFL. 

Hie gets a 42.4% TD probability from the DimersBOT, for fair odds of +135, right near the number we're getting.

Leg 4: Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer

Finally, we'll close out with Josh Allen to score a touchdown, the highest probability for any player in this game.

Ellen had 12 rushing TDs this season, including one vs. the Chiefs, and picked up a pair last week vs. Baltimore.

He's as dangerous as any player in the league when he starts rushing with the ball and can run through an entire secondary that's trying to bring him down.

He's got the third-most rushing attempts in the redzone among QBs this year and our model gives him a 46.2% probability to score tonight.

Bills-Chiefs Same Game Parlay

+800

Bet $25
Payout $225Bet $25, Payout $225

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