Our Futures Bets on (Almost) Every NFL Team - Week 15 Update

Out of all the markets I prefer to bet on, I absolutely LOVE betting on futures. By far, my favorite bets to make, futures betting makes betting feel more like a game to me than sweating out nightly plays and fretting over getting picks right. The longer odds, the narrative reading, the gut feelings that pay dividends in the end; it’s simply unbeatable in my opinion.

There are so many futures markets to bet on; from the classics like championship and division winners to MVP awards and unique player prop markets or season stat leaders. And unlike daily or even weekly NFL betting, we get months to research and find numbers and data to use leading up to actually placing our bets in the preseason, plus we get opportunities throughout the year to hedge our original investments or jump on new opportunities.

And finally, the shifts in futures markets always create value. For a recent example, CJ Stroud has catapulted forward as the incredibly heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. As a result, we see the next shortest odds for Puka Nacua and Jahmyr Gibbs get longer, and that opens up value. Now, this award is Stroud’s to lose, but in the unfortunate event of an injury, the odds for Nacua and Gibbs would drop drastically. And while this is a bit of an extreme example given Stroud is such a heavy favorite at just the midpoint, the concept is the same.  A loss in value in one direction means an increase in value elsewhere.

To make an event out of my love of futures, I set out to place 32 futures bets on all 32 teams for the 2023 season before Week 1. I almost succeeded, failing to find a single bet of interest for the Rams or Packers before the season started, so I settled on 30 of them.

It’s been a fun ride through the NFL season. Some of these bets are deader than disco while some are bursting with life and some are looking like they’ll be a fun sweat right up through the last snaps of Week 18. I’ll update this article weekly as things change and hopefully, we’ll be celebrating a few of these come the end of the year. For the record, I placed a flat rate of $10 on each.

*Note: The original writeups for these bets came after Week 9 for context*

30 Futures Bets on 30 NFL Teams

Arizona Cardinals

Bet: To Go Winless (+2200)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 3

Thanks, Cowboys. Granted, Kyler Murray is set to return and maybe this would have lost anyway, but as a Cowboys fan myself, this felt personal. The worst part? It’s still in my active bets, smack dab at the top so I have to look at it every day.

Atlanta Falcons

Bet: Undefeated at Home (+5000)

Status: Loss 

Week of Loss: Week 6

The logic here was based on the Falcons penchant for covering the spread last season combined with their soft record at home, in which they faced one singular playoff team from the year prior (the Vikings), who they happened to lose to anyway, and one fewer home game than away. Absolutely worth it for the huge payout and it was fun when they started out 3-0.

Baltimore Ravens

Bet: Last Undefeated Team (+1400)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 3

This one feels like it should have been a winner when you look at how well the Ravens are playing now compared to Week 3 and then Week 5 when they lost to the inferior Colts and Steelers. No one made it out of Week 6 without a loss, so if they just could have survived those two… Oh, well!

Buffalo Bills

Bet: Josh Allen to Lead League in INTs (+1000)

Status: Has 14, lead is 15

I know you were starting to doubt me, but don’t worry, they’re not all losses! I can barely contain my excitement when talking about how fun this bet is. Every single time Allen throws a pick (which he does a LOT), I smile. I could have the worst fantasy and betting week but if Allen drops another deep ball into the arms of a defender, I feel like a winner.

Week 14 Update: In my best Adam Sandler voice, "Sam Howell, damn you!" Guy tossed a pick just before getting benched and my Cowboys couldn't even come up with an INT to salvage that slopfest on Sunday. Gonna be a sweat here!

Carolina Panthers

Bet: Bryce Young to Lead League in INTs (+2000)

Status: Has 9

If we’re super lucky, these guys will tie co-share the lead at the end of the season and dead heat rules will split the difference between their odds, cashing at an overall +1500. There’s not a ton to dive into as far as my logic here, just that the odds were great and rookie QBs are prone to turnovers, especially when they don’t have significant offensive weapons. Our biggest obstacle is a potential benching of Young if he stinks too hard.

Week 15 Update: Nothing new for Bryce in Week 15; he's limiting turnovers, despite the Panthers being a bad team.

Cincinnati Bengals

Bet: Ja’Marr Chase to Lead League in Receptions (+1000)

Status: Has 93. Keenan Allen leads with 108

Ja’Marr entered SNF against the Bills just four behind Diggs but the Bills WR pulled away just a touch in their head-to-head meeting. Chase also took a hard fall and was banged up, but as I typed this out, he was upgraded to limited in practice so he should play. He’ll likely need a spike week (or two) of 10+ receptions to really give this life, but six back of the lead at the midpoint is a fine place to be.

Week 15 Update: The QB situation with Jake Browning isn't even the issue, just light volume and a shoulder injury that forced Chase out of Week 15.

Cleveland Browns

Bet: Nick Chubb to Lead League in Rushing TDs (+900)

Status: Loss, out for the season

Week of Loss: Week 2

The worst way to lose a bet is to injury, especially when it’s such a gruesome one to one of the league’s most likable players. Chubb had as good a shot as anyone to punch in the most TDs on the ground but now we’ll never know.

Chicago Bears

Bet: Justin Fields to Lead NFC North in Rushing Yards (+460)

Status: Has 488, well behind Montgomery, Gibbs, and Mattison

This is the first one that is dead in practicality, yet technically still alive. Fields hasn’t played since October 15^th and was already trailing Alexander Mattison and David Montgomery before he hurt his finger. Who knows if he’ll even get his job back, but it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be able to pace the division with just 8 games to go.

Week 15 Update: Though he's running a lot, he's not putting up the pace we need. The missed games will kill this one that otherwise had nice legs, no pun intended.

Dallas Cowboys

Bet: CeeDee Lamb to Record 1,500 Receiving yards (+650)

Status: Has 1,306 and is on pace for 1,585

This wasn’t looking too hot for a few weeks, but then Lamb went nuclear for back-to-back weeks of career-high marks, picking up 349 yards combined in Weeks 9+10. As long as he gets his looks, this should be on track. An average of 75 yards per game will get us there!

Week 15 Update: His overall pace continues to dip, but it puts him over if he can average 65 yard per game over these last three.

Denver Broncos

Bet: Justin Simmons to Lead League in INTs (defense) (+900)

Status: Has 3, lead is 8

This one was kind of random, but I was basically banking on Jimmy G to just funnel half a dozen picks Simmons’ way on his own. Simmons has had at least five picks in three straight seasons but we know interceptions can be pretty random. This speaks more to the lack of appealing bets on the Broncos than how much I believed in Simmons, but hopefully, a couple picks land our way and we’re all in play.

Week 15 Update: It's time to put the nail in this one. While a fun bet, it's a market i'll avoid next year

Detroit Lions

Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown to Record 1,500 Receiving yards (+1400)

Status: Has 1,175 and is on pace for 1,446

Amon-Ra’s lone missed game was keeping him off his pace, as a WR must average 88 yards per game over the course of a 17-game season to hit 1,500. He’s one of the best WRs who isn’t talked about like one and was the focal point of an up-and-coming offense, making this a no-brainer bet at +1400 odds. He’ll need to make up those 88 yards to get us back on track officially.

Week 15 Update: Amon-Ra crushed the mark we needed him to but his missed game has him under pace by about 50 yards. We need 108 per week over these final three

Green Bay Packers

Bet: NONE

I simply couldn’t find something I liked. Too much uncertainty around Jordan Love and the range of outcomes was too great.

Houston Texans

Bet: Most-Improved Team (+700)

Status: 8-6, currently most improved

I love this one! A team with a spicy young coach and a lot of young talent, plus a middling division made this bet super appealing. We ran a full feature on the Most-Improved team with a deep dive into historical results and our model’s projected win totals and the Texans were my favorite play all along. They’re the first to meet and pass their previous season’s win total, meaning they’ve already made the most headway in this market, albeit by one game. With everyone else behind the curve, a seven or eight-win season just might cash this.

Week 15 Update: This one brings a tear to my eye like I'm watching my kid score a game-winning touchdown. The Texans lead the pack with a five-win improvement and pulled out an epic walk-off win with star QB C.J, Stroud out in Week 15.

Indianapolis Colts

Bet: Exactly 4 wins (+750)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 10

It was an unconventional way of reaching five wins, but with the power of Minshew Mania and a healthy Jonathan Taylor, the Colts have managed to get it done.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Bet: Calvin Riley to Record 1,500 Receiving yards (+1500)

Status: Has 781 yards

I admittedly (and shamelessly) drank the Calvin Ridley Kool-Aid this offseason. He was an IR stash and fantasy keeper for me, I’ve got him in a 1,000 receiving yard round robin, and I took a swing on him to post a monster year in his return. Sadly, he’s not even pacing his WR room. Too many mouths to feed in Jacksonville, unfortunately. Barring several 150+ yard games or a massive uptick on volume, this one is toast.

Week 15 Update: Ridley has a few hundred yards left on the table due to PI calls, drops and other forces of nature. Enough said. 11 DPI calls drawn this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

Bet: First Loss to Eagles in Week 10 (+5000)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 1

It’s fitting that that I write this in Week 10 when they were supposed to meet considering this bet died in Week 1 when the Lions upset the Super Bowl champs in the season opener. They ended up losing to the Broncos in Week 8 anyway, but this would have been great if it made that far as I would have had weekly hedge opportunities, especially against underdogs. Alas, not meant to be. There’s a reason it was +5000, after all.

Las Vegas Raiders

Bet: Maxx Crosby to Lead League in Sacks (+2500)

Status: Has 13.5, lead is 16

Crosby got off to a slow start but then he must have been putting Josh McDaniels’ face on opposing QBs a la The Waterboy, because he’s screamed up the sack leaderboard to trail league leader Danielle Hunter by just .5 at the midpoint. I love Crosby as a player and he’s a hungry, defensive beast. I simply thought these odds were too good preseason and I was right. Here’s to crushing it the rest of the way, Maxx.

Week 15 Update: Crosby continues to just trail the leaders, 2.5 sacks behind TJ Watt. We're so close 

Los Angeles Chargers

Bet: Quentin Johnston Offensive Rooke of the Year (+2500)

Status: Nope

Go back in time and ask me what I was thinking because I can’t really tell you now. Don’t drink and bet, I guess? Look, the kid flashed serious talent at TCU and joined an offense manned by one of the league’s biggest arms in Justin Herbert. The role simply hasn’t materialized.

Los Angeles Rams

Bet: NONE

Like the Packers, there was just nothing that stood out ot me for the Rams given the injury questions, although I do have a Cooper Kupp Comeback Player of the Year ticket from mid-summer that can take its place here. Not looking too great unless everyone in front of Kupp falls off a cliff.

Miami Dolphins

Bet: To Start 5-0 (+1500)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 4

Man, this one sucks. This looked so good, we got such good odds by virtue of the Dolphins playing the Chargers in Week 1 and no one expecting them to be so explosive on offense. Unfortunately, their inner nature came out in Week 4 against the Bills, that nature being that they’re incapable of beating a team with a winning record. They smashed the Dolphins in Week 5 to go 4-1, too.

Minnesota Vikings

Bet: Justin Jefferson to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1400)

Status: Off the board

I cashed a preseason +2000 OPOY ticket on Jetta last season so naturally, I had to go back to the well. He was a top candidate through the early going before landing on IR a few weeks back. He could return soon and theoretically climb his way back into the race but it’s an uphill battle. Fortunately, I’ve got a stake in someone else, as well. More on that a little below.

Week 14 Update: Jefferson finally returned from IR (too late anyway) and promptly got hurt again.

New England Patriots

Bet: Exactly 5 wins (+700)

Status: 3-10

It’s hard to believe I was maybe too high on the Patriots even though I picked them to win just five games, but they’re struggling to reach even that mark, with the worst record in the AFC. I’m hoping they can steal three wins against the Colts, Giants, Steelers, Broncos and maybe the Week 18 Jets, but the opportunities are thinning out.

Week 15 Update: Okay, they FINALLY won another game. Can we please get two more? They've got the Broncos, Bills and Jets on deck. Going to be tough.

New Orleans Saints

Bet: Most Wins in the League (+2400)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 15 (officially)

This was a play on upside and the odds more than anything, but the Saints did have one of the softest schedules on paper. Seriously, go look at it. Their “hard” games are the Lions and Jaguars. They simply haven’t been very good and dropped earlier games to the Packers and Bucs with a sputtering offense. 

Week 15 Update: At 7-10 with three games to go, the Saints are cooked

New York Giants

Bet: Saquon Barkley Offensive Player of the Year (+4500)

Status: Dead

The odds were long and if it hit, it would have profited the entire 30 teams experiment and I’m salty my COPY ticket for Saquon last year lost to Geno freakin’ Smith. Don’t chastise me for this one.

New York Jets

Bet: Sweep AFC East (+3500)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 3

Obviously, I placed this bet with the expectation that Aaron Rodgers would be the QB this season and it was a longshot anyway, but the Jets were poised to be good and both the Bills and Dolphins have proven their penchant for playing down to teams. It had hilarious life after the Jets Week 1 upset over the Bills, but things went their natural course with Zach Wilson under center.

Philadelphia Eagles

Bet: Jalen Hurts to Win MVP (+1200)

Status: +1300

I’m a Cowboys fan and bet on Hurts to win MVP, that’s how you know I was serious. Pretty self-explanatory, Hurts is one of the best QBs in the NFL, the Eagles are one of the best teams and he has the narrative window. He’s locked in a three-way race with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes at the midpoint.

Week 15 Update: The Eagles have hit a three-game skid and Hurts has looked very plain in those games. He was +700  in the fourth quarter on MNF before dropping to +1300 after the loss. It's Purdy's to lose.

San Francisco 49ers

Bet: Christian McCaffery to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1500)

Status: Currently -150

Another self-explanatory bet, CMC is the best running back in the league and should have won tis the year he put up 1,000 yards rushing AND receiving in the same season. He’s carried his TD streak from last season all the way into the 49ers’ Week 10 bye and shows no signs of slowing down. I’m a little worried about Tyreek Hill, but I do have him in a parlay with Micah Parson for DPOY so I have a pseudo hedge there.

Week 15 Update: Well, well, well! After falling behind to Tyreek at -200, a missed game for Hill opened the door for a CMC masterclass with 3 TDs and nearly 200 total yards. He's in the front with three to go and Hill close behind at +105

Seattle Seahawks

Bet: Riq Woolen to Lead League in INTs (defense) (+2000)

Status: Has 2

A swing on an up-and-coming player who put up six picks in his rookie season in 2022. He’s unlikely to even match that total at this rate, but for the odds, this was a fine $10 play.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bet: TJ Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year (+850)

Status: Currently +360 behind Garrett (+165) and Parsons (-110)

Close to a three-way tie, I just need Watt to have one or two statement games with another patented strip-sack-fumble or multi-sack game to slide his way into the betting favorite. I love Parsons and think his time is coming, but I think it’s hard to debate the impact Watt is having, especially in the stat sheet.

Week 15 Update: I feel like I'm being mocked with this one. Leads the league in sacks but because he's on the worst team of the top candidates, he gets no respect. Need a vintage TJ Watt sack-fumble-TD play this week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bet: Last Winless Team (+1100)

Status: Loss

Week of Loss: Week 1

Not much to explain here, I simply didn’t think the Bucs would be any good and would be playing for a top-five pick. They shut this down instantly with a Week 1 win over the Panthers, who ironically had probably their best game of the year then and were ultimately the team that went on to cash in this market. So it goes sometimes.

Tennessee Titans

Bet: Derrick Henry to Lead League in Rushing Yards (+650)

Status: Has 884, McCaffery leads with 1,292

This has gained some new life in recent weeks as King Henry has closed the gap on CMC with a game’s worth of output separating the two. Henry has seen his snap share cut into by rookie Tyjae Spears, but he still rips off big plays and gets the yardage. This will be a very interesting one to watch in the second half.

Week 15 Update: Well it was a good run, King. After his worst performance of his career with a 9-yard output on Sunday, this one is officially cooked. You have to wonder if this is it fro Henry and the Titans with his contract up, too.

Washington Commanders

Bet: Exactly 6 wins (+500)

Status: 4-10

We’ve reached the end! Though Washington was on pace to beat this mark, they just shipped off their two best defensive players and have reached the back-loaded harder part of their schedule. Can they win just two more games this season?

Week 15 Update:  The Commanders face the Jets, 49ers and Cowboys to close it out. We need two and there's realistically only one for them to win. With the Cowboys locked into an NFC East battle, they'll likely be all-in in Week 18.

 

If you made it this far, thanks for reading! I’ll be updating weekly and sharing strategies on any hedge opportunities I find as things progress, and hopefully by the end of the season, I’ll share some profitable results. Either way, this was a blast and I can’t wait to do it again next year.