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2025 Mexico Open Predictions, Picks and Odds: PGA TOUR Betting at Vidanta
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We put every effort into ensuring information on Dimers is accurate. But double-check details that matter to you before making any wager.
We head south for The Mexico Open at VidantaWorld as the latest stop on the PGA TOUR. Check out our best winner picks and placement bets from our predictive model.
The 2025 PGA TOUR season continues with The Mexico Open, running from Thursday, February 20 through Sunday, February 23.
Action moves from the West Coast swing down South to Vallarta, Mexico at VidantaWorld, one of two events where golfers can earn a spot in the Arnold Palmer Invitational later this year.
Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.
Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024and is off to a productive start this year, identifying multiple mid-tournament winners in 2025 like Harris English and Sepp Straka at longshot odds.
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Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20GOLF Get Dimers Pro Who Will Win the 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld?
Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Mexico Open, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:
| GOLFER | WIN | TOP 5 | TOP 10 | TOP 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akshay Bhatia | 7.1% | 23.7% | 36.6% | 53.6% |
| Aaron Rai | 4.8% | 18.4% | 30.8% | 48.7% |
| Harry Hall | 4.7% | 16.8% | 27.7% | 44.6% |
| Sam Stevens | 4.0% | 15.7% | 26.2% | 42.4% |
| Michael Kim | 3.7% | 14.4% | 25.6% | 41.9% |
The Mexico Open Betting Preview
The West Coast swing of the PGA TOUR has wrapped and we head to Vallarta, Mexico for the latest event, its fourth year as a PGA TOUR feature.
Lots of big names are taking this one off - you won't find a golfer ranked within the Top 25 of the OWGR in this field, with Aaron Rai (29th) Akshay Bhatia (30th) the highest-ranked participants. Defending champ Jake Knapp (+3500) returns as well.
We'll be on the Vidanta Vallarta Course at VidantaWorld, a 7,436 Par 71 course. With healthy-sized fairways on these long holes, Driving Distance and long-iron play (proximity) will be critical at this course, rewarding those players who can send the ball and excel at finishing on approach.
Reigning champ Jake Knapp happens to lead all players in longest drives this year, but ranks nearly 100th in Driving Distance, while favorite Akshay Bhatia is one of the highest-ranked players in Approach out of the players in this field.
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Best Bets to Win the 2025 Mexico Open
Akshay Bhatia (+1400 on DraftKings)
First up is our favorite and the books' favorite, 23-year old Akshay Bhatia, the highest-ranked and most promising player in this field.
DimersBOT gives Bhatia a 7.1% probability to win the Mexico Open, with the discrepancy between him and our next golfer (Aaron Rai) the largest between any two golfers back-to-back in our leaderboard.
Bhatia's 2025 is off to a modest start, though he's coming off his best finish yet, a T9, at The Genesis Invitational which featured a tough course and far more talented competition.
While his Driving Distance leaves a lot to be desired (ranked 169th), his approach is among the best in this field, giving him a sizable advantage when it comes to iron play and his ability to hit greens in regulation should propel him to contention throughout the weekend.
Our probability for Bhatia makes fair odds of approximately +1300, giving us a little bit of value on the favorite.
Harry Hall (+3300 on BetMGM)
Next up is our third-highest projected golfer in this field, Englishman Harry Hall, who quietly had a great start to the year, before tailing off in his past two events.
Hall finished T8, T10, T21 to start the year before a T58 and a Missed Cut in his past two events.
His course fit is okay at VidantaWorld - he's more of a strong putter (ranked 7th) than a big hitter with his Driving Distance below the field average, but his approach is sound. He's hitting 72% of greens in regulation, among the best out of the golfers in this field, and he ranks 6th on the TOUR for Birdie average.
He's largely a play on value here, with our 4.7% probability identifying fair odds of around +2000 while his odds are at +3300, longer than the next four golfers in the leaderboard.
He's a consideration for placements as well, with a 44.6% to get Top 20.
Justin Lower (+6500 on FanDuel)
Our third winner pick is on the longer side, but pretty high up our leaderboard compared to the rest of the field.
Justin Lower draws a 2.8% probability to win the Mexico Open, just inside our Top 10.
He flirted with victory at The American Express, opening with a 63 and finishing T3 overall, three strokes back of the lead. Since then, he's finished T62 and with a Missed Cut - worth noting his T62 featured two rounds over sandwiched between Rounds of 69, so he had a chance if he played the middle rounds more effectively. Now, we'll see how we can do with two weeks to rest up and find his form.
His Driving Distance isn't super great, but it's the mid-range where he thrives - 2nd in Proximity, 39th in approach and knows how to get a birdie above the TOUR average.
Our probability implies fair odds of +3500 while we can get Lower at +6500, big value when you consider he's as low as +4500 on some books!
He's also a strong look for Top 20 with a 35.3% probability and +280 odds.
Best Top 20 Bets for the 2025 Mexico Open
In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Mexico Open at VidantaWorld as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.
Michael Kim to Finish Top 20 (+130 on DraftKings)
Michael Kim might not be the flashiest pick out of the leaderboard as he's sitting just at about fair odds, but he lines up well for course fit.
Kim is 65th in Driving Distance, well above TOUR average, 58th in Proximity and 37th overall in Approach. While he doesn't dominate on approach between 200 and 250 yards, he's great at 250+, a range his long driving should put him in frequently.
At a 42.1% probability, we're at fair odds of +135 while he sits right at +130.
He's a contender to win as well, but at less value than the winners above, as he's sitting right on fair odds.
Aaron Rai Top 20 (+140 on DraftKings)
The Englishman is our second-highest probability to win (just a shade over Hall), but with his course fit a bit iffy, we're just going to look at the Top 20 value.
both his Driving Distance and Approach are below TOUR average, with his most favorable asset his 10th-ranked Driving Accuracy, but that's less of a boon on this course than the heavy-hitting ability.
Despite that, he's shown his ability to contend - he struggled on the difficult Torrey Pines but showed bright spots with some early Top 20 contention at The Genesis Invitational and opening Farmers Insurance Open with a 69.
As a value play, we make Rai's fair odds at +105, while we can grab him at +140.
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament
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- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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