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2025 Masters Prop Bets: Unique Angles on Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Explore betting options like first-round leader, top nationality props, and cut line picks for the 2025 Masters at Augusta.
The Masters at Augusta National is one of the most anticipated events on the sports calendar, and for good reason—it's tradition, drama, and elite-level golf rolled into one. But in recent years, what’s also grown alongside the action on the course is the rise of golf prop bets—and nowhere is that more evident than at The Masters.
Unlike betting on the outright winner, golf props give bettors a variety of ways to get involved—whether it’s backing your favorite player to lead after Round 1, finish as the top American or European, or even survive the weekend cut. And thanks to our predictive analytics model here at Dimers, we’ve simulated all of these scenarios thousands of times to highlight the best value.
Let’s break down each of the key Masters props we’re projecting for this week.
First-Round Leader
The first-round leader market allows you to bet on who will have the lowest score after Thursday’s opening round. Because ties are common, most sportsbooks apply “dead heat” rules—which means your payout could be reduced if your player finishes in a tie for the lead.
Based on Dimers’ Masters simulations, Scottie Scheffler is the most likely to lead after 18 holes, followed closely by Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm.
| Player | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 6.24% |
| Collin Morikawa | 3.88% |
| Jon Rahm | 3.62% |
| Rory McIlroy | 3.60% |
| Justin Thomas | 2.64% |
| Russell Henley | 2.64% |
| Shane Lowry | 2.40% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 2.24% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2.02% |
| Xander Schauffele | 1.96% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.96% |
| Brooks Koepka | 1.94% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.92% |
| Keegan Bradley | 1.86% |
| Corey Conners | 1.82% |
| Cameron Smith | 1.80% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 1.76% |
| Viktor Hovland | 1.58% |
| Sepp Straka | 1.56% |
| Min Woo Lee | 1.56% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 1.54% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1.54% |
| Adam Scott | 1.54% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.52% |
| Robert Macintyre | 1.50% |
Sign up today for updated predictions after each round Get Dimers Pro Top U.S. Player
This prop bet focuses on who will finish highest among American players in the field—regardless of where they finish in the overall tournament standings. So even if someone like Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy wins the Masters, your bet on the Top U.S. Player can still cash if your American pick finishes ahead of the rest of his fellow Americans.
| Top U.S. Player 🇺🇸 | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 23.4% |
| Collin Morikawa | 11.8% |
| Justin Thomas | 6.7% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 5.5% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 5.2% |
| Russell Henley | 4.9% |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.2% |
| Brooks Koepka | 3.6% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 2.3% |
| Keegan Bradley | 2.0% |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.9% |
| J.J. Spaun | 1.9% |
| Patrick Reed | 1.8% |
| Will Zalatoris | 1.7% |
| Daniel Berger | 1.7% |
Top European Player
The Top Euro Player market works the same way, just limited to European golfers. And again, even if an American like Scheffler or Morikawa wins the tournament, your bet could still cash—say, if Viktor Hovland or Ludvig Aberg finishes second overall but ahead of all other Europeans.
| Top Euro Player 🇪🇺 | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 18.6% |
| Jon Rahm | 15.4% |
| Shane Lowry | 10.0% |
| Sepp Straka | 7.1% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 6.6% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 6.5% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 6.4% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 5.4% |
| Viktor Hovland | 5.3% |
| Aaron Rai | 3.8% |
| Sergio Garcia | 2.9% |
| Justin Rose | 2.6% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 2.5% |
| Thomas Detry | 2.1% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 1.6% |
To Make or Miss the Cut
Cutline betting is another exciting prop that gets resolved by Friday afternoon. Since 2021, Augusta National has followed a tighter rule: only the Top 50 players and ties advance to the weekend. The old 10-shot rule? Gone. That means higher stakes—and a clearer line—for betting on who will make or miss the cut.
Drawn from our full list of predictions to make and miss the cut, here are the 10 most likely players on either side:
To Make the Cut
| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 88.9% |
| Rory McIlroy | 83.3% |
| Collin Morikawa | 82.8% |
| Jon Rahm | 81.0% |
| Justin Thomas | 77.6% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 74.3% |
| Shane Lowry | 74.1% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 73.8% |
| Russell Henley | 73.6% |
| Xander Schauffele | 73.4% |
To Miss the Cut
| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Angel Cabrera | 95.5% |
| Evan Beck | 90.1% |
| Noah Kent | 89.7% |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | 88.5% |
| Vijay Singh | 88.4% |
| Fred Couples | 85.4% |
| Mike Weir | 85.3% |
| Hiroshi Tai | 82.7% |
| Rafael Campos | 80.3% |
| Thriston Lawrence | 80.0% |
More Masters Betting Guides
- Early predictions: probabilities for the key players in the field
- Best bets: Our best bets to win and finish in the top-10 and top-20
- World rankings: the top-100 from across PGA and LIV golf
- Head-to-head tool: compare any two players to build your Masters parlays
- Our Head-to-Head Parlay Picks: Four matchups at +883 odds
- Bet365 new user deal: The latest Bet365 bonus code offer
Final Thoughts
Prop betting gives golf fans more ways to follow—and profit from—their favorite players. Whether it’s nailing a first-round leader, backing a nationality bet, or predicting who won’t make it to Saturday, props provide more flexibility and fun. And the best part? You don’t need to wait until Sunday—many of these bets can cash after just one or two rounds.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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