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Read Article 2025 Masters Predictions Reveal Most Likely to Make or Miss the Cut at Augusta National
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
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The 2025 Masters is here with 95 golfers competing for a green jacket and their share of $20M. We analyze the chances for those most likely to Make or Miss the cut at Augusta National.
The first major of the 2025 golf season is here, as The Masters tees off at Augusta National Golf Club from Thursday, April 10 through Sunday, April 13. With 95 players in the field and a $20 million purse and a green jacket on the line, all eyes are on who will rise to the occasion—or fall short—at the 89th edition of this legendary tournament.
Early tee times for The Masters are up and we await the action getting underway on Thursday morning when Dimers' best bets for The Masters step on to the links and kicking things off with our +3001 First Round 3-Ball parlay.
While the spotlight shines on defending champion and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, and World No. 2 Rory McIlroy in pursuit of his long-awaited first green jacket, major storylines around LIV, amateurs and more, there's plenty to analyze beyond the favorites. From seasoned vets struggling for form to young debutants navigating Augusta for the first time, the Make/Miss Cut markets are loaded with betting intrigue.
With Augusta National presenting its usual blend of beauty and difficulty, the cut line looms large. We’re breaking down who’s most likely to be packing their bags early, and who’s poised to survive the weekend in Georgia.
Be sure to visit Dimers all golf season long, where Dimers Pros can access our Golf Predictions, PGA Head to Head Predictor and Best Golf Bets, as well as best bets and props for over a dozen leagues on Dimers.com, including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, college sports and international soccer.
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At Augusta National, making the cut has always been a badge of honor—but how hard that badge is to earn has changed over time. Before 1957, there was no cut. After the decision to narrow the field, it became just the top 40 until 1961, with the top 44 plus those within 10 shots of the lead. That rule stood for half a century before expanding to the Top 50, before abandoning the 10-shot role in 2020. Now, only the top 50 and ties move on, regardless of margin from the leader.
That year, players had to be at even par to stick around—an unprecedented demand for perfection in a year when the tournament was played in November for the first time ever. On the other end of the spectrum, in recent years like 2016, 2017, and 2024, the cut ballooned to +6, showcasing just how brutal Augusta can play depending on weather, pin positions, and course setup.
Most years have hovered between +3 and +5, making +3 (147 total) the most common cut line, and the overall average cut across the past 15 editions sits around +4.
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2025 Masters: Who Will Make the Cut?
Below you will find our Top 25 players mot likely to make the cut at The Masters, led by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler and rounding out with Top 20 hopeful Daniel Berger.
Alongside each golfer's probability, you will find the fair odds for them to make the cut.
| Golfer | Make Cut % | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 88.9% | -800 |
| Rory McIlroy | 83.3% | -500 |
| Collin Morikawa | 82.8% | -482 |
| Jon Rahm | 81.0% | -426 |
| Justin Thomas | 77.6% | -347 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 74.3% | -289 |
| Shane Lowry | 74.1% | -288 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 73.8% | -282 |
| Russell Henley | 73.6% | -279 |
| Xander Schauffele | 73.4% | -275 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 71.9% | -256 |
| Corey Conners | 71.6% | -252 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 71.4% | -250 |
| Sepp Straka | 71.3% | -248 |
| Brooks Koepka | 70.3% | -237 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 70.2% | -236 |
| Robert Macintyre | 70.2% | -236 |
| Cameron Smith | 70.0% | -233 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 69.4% | -226 |
| Viktor Hovland | 68.2% | -214 |
| Min Woo Lee | 67.7% | -209 |
| Keegan Bradley | 67.4% | -206 |
| Ludvig Ã…berg | 66.9% | -202 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 66.1% | -195 |
| Daniel Berger | 64.6% | -182 |
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These are the Top 25 players the Dimers model predicts most likely to miss the cut at the 2025 Masters. Former champion Angel Cabrera gets just a 4.5% probability to make the cut.
To determine any player's chances to make the cut, simply subtract the probability below from 100%, with the remaining difference representing our model's prediction for them to make it to the weekend.
| Golfer | Miss Cut % | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Angel Cabrera | 95.5% | -2122 |
| Evan Beck | 90.1% | -914 |
| Noah Kent | 89.7% | -870 |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | 88.5% | -770 |
| Vijay Singh | 88.4% | -762 |
| Fred Couples | 85.4% | -585 |
| Mike Weir | 85.3% | -580 |
| Hiroshi Tai | 82.7% | -478 |
| Rafael Campos | 80.3% | -408 |
| Thriston Lawrence | 80.0% | -400 |
| Justin Hastings | 79.3% | -383 |
| Jose Luis Ballester | 78.2% | -359 |
| Bernhard Langer | 72.3% | -261 |
| Adam Schenk | 71.7% | -254 |
| Brian Campbell | 71.3% | -248 |
| Phil Mickelson | 70.4% | -238 |
| Patton Kizzire | 69.9% | -232 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 66.4% | -198 |
| Davis Riley | 65.7% | -192 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 65.6% | -191 |
| Max Homa | 64.9% | -185 |
| Danny Willett | 63.9% | -177 |
| Matthew McCarty | 63.5% | -174 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 63.2% | -172 |
| Nick Dunlap | 58.0% | -138 |
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Masters and every major.
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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