2025 March Madness Expert Predictions Reveal Every Upset in Round 2 of NCAAB Tournament Bracket

The 2025 March Madness Bracket rolls on after a thrilling first round that delivered its fair share of upsets.

Basketball fans and bettors are sweating out their brackets picks, finding their best March Madness championship bets after the latest odds movement, selecting their upset picks for the latest round and more.

Now, it's time to gear up for Round 2.

Each round, we'll be bringing you a variety of Dimers Pro insights, from our Best CBB Bets, CBB Player Props, Game Predictions, player prop trends, bracket insights and more, all at your fingertips from the First Four to the final buzzer of the Championship Game.

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Below, you'll find some key insights from our college basketball predictions around which teams are most likely to upset the higher seed in the second round. For the purposes of this article, we'll look at the teams with at least a 30% win probability and teams separated by at least 3 seeds, rather than any scenario in which a lower seed beats a higher seed.

These will be the highest probabilities for upsets in the second round, not necessarily predicted upsets (meaning the underdog gets a 50% probability or higher).

We also have created specific Upset Brackets, each based around a different risk level for those looking to take calculated risks in their March Madness bracket picks which have provided additional insight.

Let's dig in!

Most Likely Upset Picks in Round 2 of March Madness

#6 Illinois (-1.5) vs. #3 Kentucky

Upset Probability: 55% 

We've seen this a few times this tournament with the lower seed favored, but we're looking at upsets from a bracket perspective, so while Illinois are 1.5-point favorites vs. Kentucky in the second round, their lower seed puts them here. 

Illinois vs. Kentucky projects as a high-scoring showdown, with both teams ranking top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and playing at a fast pace (Illinois 17th in tempo, Kentucky 22nd). Kentucky shoots 37.4% from deep (23rd nationally) despite a low 3-point rate, while Illinois takes more threes but hits just 31.4%. Defensively, Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot 41.5% from three since February, a key vulnerability against Kentucky’s efficient perimeter attack. Illinois boasts a 55% win probability per Dimers’ model, however, Kentucky’s offensive efficiency make this a tight matchup. With Illinois favored by 1.5 points, our projected score has the Illini edging out an 83-81 victory, though Kentucky’s shooting advantage could swing the result.

#6 BYU vs. #3 Wisconsin (-1)

Upset Probability: 42% 

With Wisconsin favored by just 1 point and holding a 58% win probability, this game is expected to be a high-scoring shootout. Both teams rank in the Top 20 nationally in three-point attempts and boast elite offensive efficiency (BYU No. 11, Wisconsin No. 13). The Badgers’ defense limits opponents' shooting percentage but struggles to force turnovers, giving BYU plenty of opportunities to find their rhythm from deep. The Cougars’ ability to dominate the offensive glass, as seen in their 40-31 rebounding advantage vs. VCU, could be a major factor. This game likely comes down to which team shoots better from beyond the arc, but Wisconsin’s size and home-court edge give them the slight upper hand.

#7 UCLA vs. #2 Tennessee (-5.5)

Upset Probability: 34% 

Tennessee is a 4.5-point favorite with a 66% win probability, but their struggles against the spread (3-7 in their last 10) raise concerns. The Volunteers have been dominant as moneyline favorites (20-2 record in that spot), yet UCLA’s defensive intensity, allowing just 67.1 points per game over their last 10, makes this a tricky matchup. If the Bruins can slow the tempo and limit Tennessee’s transition scoring, they have a real shot at keeping it close. However, Tennessee’s balanced scoring and efficiency (46.8% FG in their last 10 games) should ultimately be the difference. 

#7 Saint Mary's vs. #2 Alabama (-5.5)

Upset Probability: 31%

Alabama thrives in high-scoring games but is just 1-3 when held under 80 points, with the lone win coming against McNeese. That’s a problem against a Saint Mary’s defense that hasn’t allowed any opponent— including Gonzaga (three times), Utah State, and Akron’s high-powered offense—to hit that mark. The Gaels rank top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency and play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, which could frustrate Alabama’s fast-paced attack. With the total set at 148.5, the under is a strong consideration given Saint Mary’s ability to dictate the pace.

Alabama has a 69% win probability, per Dimers, and is favored by 5.5 points, but this matchup isn’t as straightforward. Saint Mary’s methodical offense and stingy defense could turn this into a grind, forcing Alabama into half-court sets where its efficiency dips. While Alabama has the superior talent and scoring depth, this game projects as a tight, lower-scoring battle. Our model gives the Crimson Tide a slight edge, projecting an 80-75 win, but Saint Mary’s ability to control tempo makes them a dangerous underdog.

📊 Updated March Madness Odds After Round 1: Latest Championship Probabilities and Best Bets

Best Expert Upset Pick in Round 2

Below is Dimers' best college basketball bet for an upset in Round 2 of the NCAAB Tournament.

Presently, our model doesn't identify any value on an underdog to win in Round 2, but that doesn't mean there's no value on the dogs to cover. UCLA gets a 58% probability to cover the spread, the highest for any team in the second round. That still puts them in upset territory, but our model says the best value is on the spread with a 4.6% edge at +5.5.

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• CBB Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 March Madness Tournament?
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