2025 March Madness Expert Predictions Reveal Every Upset in Round 1 of NCAAB Tournament Bracket

The 2025 March Madness Bracket is set and the tournament is about to begin.

Basketball fans and bettors are frantically filling out their brackets picks, competing in office pools, finding their best March Madness championship bets, selecting their upset picks, discovering how to watch March Madness and gearing up for the action once it begins on March 18 with the First Four.

Now, it's time to get into the action.

Each round, we'll be bringing you a variety of Dimers Pro insights, from our Best CBB Bets, CBB Player Props, Game Predictions, player prop trends, bracket insights and more, all at your fingertips from the First Four to the final buzzer of the Championship Game.

For a limited time, all new users can get a discount on their first month of Dimers Pro by using the promo code MARCH. Learn more here or tap the offer below.

Get Your First Month For the Price of 1 Week with Promo Code MARCH

Get Dimers Pro

Below, you'll find some key insights from our Dimers Brackets - filled out by simulating the entire field of the 2025 NCAAB tournament over 10,000 times - around which teams are most likely to upset the higher seed in the first round. For the purposes of this article, we'll consider an "upset" any scenario in which a lower seed beats a higher seed, separate from our look at a history of upsets in the March Madness tournament, in which we selected teams at least five seeds lower.

These will be the highest probabilities for upsets in the first round, not necessarily predicted upsets (meaning the underdog gets a 50% probability or higher).

We also have created specific Upset Brackets, each based around a different risk level for those looking to take calculated risks in their March Madness bracket picks.

Let's dig in!

Most Likely Upset Picks in Round 1 of March Madness Bracket

#12 Colorado State vs. #5 Memphis (-2.5)

Upset Probability: 58%

An upset in the bracket but not on the sportsbook, our model gives #12 Colorado State a 58% probability to take down Memphis in the first round. The 12 vs. 5 matchups is the second most frequent upset in tournament history since the 1985 expansion, resulting in 35.3% of 12 seeds winning out of 156 matchups. Colorado State is the only team seeded lower and favored in this tournament.

#9 Baylor vs. #8 Mississippi State (-2.5)

Upset Probability: 54% 

The Baylor Bears are 2.5-point underdogs but in the Dimers Ultimate Bracket picks, they're the one who advances into the second round. The 8vs. 9 matchup is rarely considered an upset given the perceived closeness of the two teams, but nonetheless, one side is still favored by the spread. If Baylor's defense can hold Mississippi's 34th ranked scoring offense to under 70 points, they may be able to pull out the upset as the Bulldogs give up over 74 points per game this season.

📊 The Dimers Ultimate Bracket: Balancing Favorites and Key Upsets - DOWNLOAD HERE

#9 Oklahoma vs. #8 UCONN (-4.5)

Upset Probability: 46% 

We don't predict Oklahoma to beat UCONN in our bracket, but the Sooners are the highest probability underdog aside from the two upsets above. The Huskies aren't a convincing team this year, struggling as recently as the Big East tournament, when they were bounced by Creighton. Oklahoma will need its defense to step up and counter as the Huskies own the best block rate in the country which could lead to a low-scoring output from Oklahoma.

#11 VCU vs. #6 BYU (-3.5)

Upset Probability: 43% 

This should be a great game as BYU's 11th-ranked offense by efficiency will meet VCU's 23rd-ranked defense who can force a flurry of turnovers. Fortunately for VCU, they've been seeded in the most frequent upset for seeds at least 5 apart, with 39.1% of 11-seeds beating the 6 since tournament expansion in 1985. Though they're the lowest probability in this list, they remain a contender for an early tournament win.

Interestingly, our model has identified the Midwest Region as the least likely to contain an upset, with our highest underdog probability at 26% for Xavier (who need to win their First Four matchup vs. Texas) to win vs. Illinois.

Best Expert Upset Pick in Round 1

Below is Dimers' best college basketball bet for an upset in Round 1 of the NCAAB Tournament.

As mentioned above, Colorado State isn't priced as an upset on the sportsbooks, but beyond our model predicting them to advance over 5-seeded Memphis, we've identified an edge on them to win the game as well, with their odds at -128 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dimers' College Basketball Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• CBB Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• CBB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best CBB Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• CBB Futures Odds: Who will win the 2025 March Madness Tournament?
• CBB Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.