2025 March Madness Cinderella Teams Who Could Bust the Most Brackets

They're synonymous with March Madness. Every NCAAB Tournament has at least one and they just might be ready to bust your March Madness brackets before they have a chance - the Cinderella teams.

Nothing gets the March Madness juices flowing more than a double-digit seed toppling a Goliath-level opponent in a bracket upset and making a deep run, possibly even into April's Final Four and Championship Game.

Finding them is no easy feat - it takes some deep research and certainly a notable level of luck to pick the right group of young adults to flip NCAAB Predictions on their head and upset the traditionally more talented teams.

But, that's where Dimers comes in. We're gearing up for our biggest crack at the tournament yet, from our Best CBB Bets, CBB Player Props, college basketball Predictions, player prop trends, bracket picks and more - we're delivering you an unparalleled basketball betting experience, all at your fingertips from the First Four to the final buzzer of the Championship Game with the help of our Dimers Pro data.

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What is a Cinderella Team?

Named for the Disney princess who get her shot at the big dance, Cinderella teams are those lower-seeded programs in the NCAAB Tournament who rise above their perceived place in the bracket assigned to them on Selection Sunday.

Except in March Madness, the dance is the road to the championship and turning into a pumpkin means getting eliminated from tournament contention.

Last year it was North Carolina State, an 11-seed who took down 2-seed Marquette to reach the Elite Eight before bowing out.

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Way back in 2008, a unique year in which all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, a then relatively unknown player by the name of Stephen Curry, led Davidson on a run to remember, downing No. 7 Gonzaga, No. 2 Georgetown and No. 3 Wisconsin before losing to top-seeded Kansas in the Elite Eight by just two points.

And who can forget the most unlikely of them all, 15-seed Saint Peter's running the table on the way to the Elite Eight in 2022, including a stunning first-round win over 2-seed Kentucky, making them the first 15 seed to ever reach the round.

Bracket Busters: Dimers' Most Likely Cinderella Teams

Below, find the teams our model gives the best chance to make a run, utilizing our post-bracket probabilities around which teams could reach the Final Four and some insights from our Dimers Upset Brackets, which offer different results based on varying levels of risk.

We're only looking at the lower seeds (one per region), specifically 9 and below. Be aware that these are all longshots and their very slim probabilities are a reflection of their improbable runs - but hey, that's what makes a Cinderella.

MIDWEST: #13 High Point Panthers

In the Midwest region, we have three teams seeded 9 or lower with a probability above 0% to reach the Final Four, the lowest of them being the High Point Panthers out of North Carolina at 0.1%. The Panthers ran an excellent offense this season, scoring 81.7 points per game, a Top 20 mark in all of Division 1. Their +11.2 average winning margin ranked 15th in the nation, despite allowing 70+ points per game. Backed by accurate shooting and a mid-tier defense that held opponents to under 50% from the field, the core pieces are there for a sneaky run in the tournament.

They'll face Purdue in the first round with a 21% moneyline probability and should they advance, they'll face the winner of Clemson-McNeese for a chance to crack the Sweet Sixteen. That puts them on a collision course with #1 Houston if they make it through, but the Cougars are the Dimers' model's lowest probability for a #1 seed to reach the Final Four at under 50%.

EAST: #9 Baylor Bears

Baylor edges out some other East region contenders with their 0.6% probability of making the Final Four, which happens to be the highest out of all teams seeded 9 or lower. 

The Bears are about as much of a middle of the pack team as you can get, making their seed quite appropriate. Their defense is sound, allowing just under 70 points per game this season, but don't shine in many areas with their biggest advantage in the opening round Mississippi State's 224th-ranked defense.

Still, their roster is extremely talented with three all-Big 12 selections, including projected NBA lottery pick VJ Edgecombe. With a potential second-round date with Duke, the Bears could find themselves in a spot to bust some brackets with the Blue Devils a top-choice for reaching the Final Four and winning it all.

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WEST: #12 Colorado State Rams

The Rams stand out as a Cinderella team as even in our most conservative bracket, they emerge with the upset over 5-seeded Memphis in the opening round. Now, this would be an upset in seed only (the Rams are favored by -1.5 over Memphis) but that's what we're looking at at, not necessarily betting value. We previously highlighted Colorado State as a top round 1 upset, but we're looking beyond just the first round here.

Their defense is what got them here, ranked 35th in the nation in points allowed per game (67.1) - this team starts strong, allowing just 30.2 1st half points per game, putting their opponents in a hole early and forcing them to shoot their way out. If they make it out of the first round, they get the winner of Maryland-GCU before a potential showdown with our model's best championship value bet, Florida.

SOUTH: #12 UC San Diego Tritons

A team making its first appearance in March Madness puts a little extra flair on a Cinderella run.

The region most represented by Final Four longshots is the South, with the 9 through 12 seeds all getting at least a 0.1% probability of reaching the semifinals and in the first-time tournament appearance for the Tritons, we give them a 0.2% probability of reaching the semifinals.

Despite a first-round matchup with Michigan, they may be in a good spot - the Tritons excel on both ends, shooting 56.1% inside the arc while holding opponents to 46.2%. They also dominate the turnover battle, ranking seventh in offensive turnover percentage and second on defense, posing a major challenge for a Michigan team that struggles with giveaways.

It doesn't hurt that the 12-seed beating the 5 is the matchup that yields the second-most first-round upsets in the tournament since the 1985 expansion.

How to Identify Cinderella Teams

So, with so much luck and unpredictability, how do you narrow down which teams can make a run? Realistically, you'll want squads that boast some key traits.

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Head to Head success vs. potential matchups

Take a look at your team's potential Cinderella's path to the championship. By nature of the March Madness Bracket, there are a limited number of teams they could play. Comparing those teams head-to-head records provides some insight into their 1v1 matchup.

Look at the history of tournaments upsets, as identified in our guide on how to pick March Madness upsets, utilizing past data and tournament trends.

Additionally, seeing where they rank in key categories like Offensive Pace, Point Differential, Turnovers could reveal some mismatches where the lower seed can exploit the higher.

Dimers Upset Brackets

As we mentioned above, look no further than Dimers' brackets to help you find your next Cinderella. As part of our biggest March Madness offering yet, we've released a variety of brackets built around different scenarios for the 2025 NCAAB Tournament. For those looking to add some calculated risks into their bracket picks, we've crafted six different brackets at varying risk levels, featuring our expert upset picks.

Utilize our Ultimate Data Bracket which combines our model's predictions with a balanced selection of strategic upsets and calculated favorites.

Or, try our Team Brackets, which reveal all 68 teams' path to the Championship Game, identifying their most likely opponents and victory scenarios.

Mispriced Odds

And finally, sometimes the odds can speak volumes.

A team with a similar probability to win but substantially better odds could signal a miscalculation by the sportsbooks - take for example, this brief period when Dimers identified Wisconsin was available at +10000, despite sitting in the Dimers' futures predictions with teams in the +3000 to +5000 range. That price didn't last long, and whether or not Wisconsin makes a run, the odds were wrong.

Identifying these teams is a crucial part of both bracket construction and March Madness futures betting strategy.

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