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2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions, Picks and Odds at Bay Hill Club
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
We put every effort into ensuring information on Dimers is accurate. But double-check details that matter to you before making any wager.
The PGA TOUR continues the Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club in Orlando. Check out our best winner picks and placement bets from our predictive model.
The 2025 PGA TOUR season continues the Florida swing with highly-anticipated Arnold Palmer Invitational, running from Thursday, March 6 through Sunday, March 9. The biggest names are at this event, featuring the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.
After a successful weekend at the Cognizant Classic cashing two of our Top 20 bets and nearly out full Russell Henley ladder, we're teeing off the next event of the PGA TOUR's Florida swing with the exciting Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club, in Orlando, FL.
Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.
Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024and is off to a productive start this year, identifying multiple mid-tournament winners in 2025 like Harris English and Sepp Straka at longshot odds, as well as our previously-mentioned successful Cognizant Classic bets last week.
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Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20GOLF Get Dimers Pro Who Will Win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational?
Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:
| GOLFER | WIN | TOP 5 | TOP 10 | TOP 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 18.3% | 47.2% | 63.7% | 81.0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 8.5% | 28.4% | 43.8% | 64.9% |
| Collin Morikawa | 5.6% | 23.5% | 39.8% | 60.8% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5.6% | 22.5% | 37.8% | 59.6% |
| Justin Thomas | 4.4% | 18.6% | 33.0% | 54.5% |
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview
The latest signature event on the PGA TOUR, the Arnold Palmer Invitational boasts a $20 Million purse on the line at Bay Hill Club, a course notorious for its difficulty spike when the wind is in play, which it looks like it will be this week.
Previous winners competing in the 72-man field include Scottie Scheffler (2024, 2022), Rory McIlroy (2018) and Jason Day (2016).
A 7,466 yard par 72, Bay Hill will once again call upon players with sound approach, limiting the damage down between the tee and the green. Birdies will be hard enough to come by, let alone for those that miss too many greens in regulation.
The thick rough means we want accuracy over distance, but strokes gained Off the Tee overall will be equally important.
Let's dive in to the golfers our model thinks will perform well this weekend.
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Best Bets to Win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Xander Schauffele to Win (+2000 on BetMGM)
The World No. 3 will make start just his second event this year after finishing T30 in the season opener at The Sentry.
A rib injury has kept him out of play and he's been waiting to be healthy enough to go and it looks like that'll be this week's signature event.
Schauffele could be rusty, but this is an elite golfer who won not one but two majors last year. He was 6th in approach, 10th off the tee and 2nd overall in stroked gained last year so if he's healthy enough to compete, he's a threat.
Our model gives him the second-highest probability to win at 8.5%, for fair odds of +1075 while he currently sits at +2000 on BetMGM. That's a big value and worth a bet.
Collin Morikawa to Win (+2200 FanDuel)
Morikawa has been very good so far this year, even though he's participated in three events. He finished T2 to open the year at The Sentry before a pair of T17 finishes in his past tries.
He finished T9 here in 2020 but missed the cut in his past two visits, which would make us shy away from most golfers, but we have two big factors putting him in our sights.
The first of those is of course, the Dimers model, which gives Morikawa the third-highest win probability of 5.6%, giving us fair odds of +1700 against his FanDuel odds of +2200.
The other factor (or factors) are his analytics this year, which suggest a strong course fit: 5th in accuracy, 5th in proximity, 10th on approach, 1st in birdie average and 2nd overall.
We're not going to fade that form.
Adam Scott to Win (+8500 on Bet365)
For our final winner pick, we're looking down the board at a longshot with big-time value.
Adam Scott has appeared in here before, and just missed out on cashing us a nice Top 20 play when he finished T22 at Pebble Beach.
The Australian has 14 TOUR wins to his name and it's been a few years since he bagged his last, although he did finish with two runner-ups last year.
Scott's accuracy off the tee is not good - hitting just 52.9% of fairways. It's after that where he shines - 15th overall in approach and 7th at Approach >200 yards. He's 13th in hitting his greens and 5th on TOUR in birdie average, despite his putting and driving deficiencies.
It'll take a complete weekend and some luck to go his way, but he could be a sneaky threat, especially with his odds as low as +7000 on some books. He's a good value play with our model's 2.9% probability implying a fair price of only +3350, and he would be our recommended ladder play of the week, sprinkling 1-2 total units across his Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 markets in addition to an outright win.
Best Top 20 Bets for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational
In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.
Patrick Cantlay Top 20 (+105 on DraftKings)
The highest-ranked and projected golfer in the field with plus-money value to finish Top 20 is up first.
That's made even sweeter by the fact that we project Patrick Cantlay with a 51.1% probability to secure a Top 20 finish, which means he should be at minus odds, not any shorter than -105.
Through four events this season, Cantlay has finished T5 twice, T15 and T33. He checks every box for a contender at Bay Hill, punctuated by his 2nd overall rank of hitting Greens in Regulation.
Russell Henley Top 20 (+140 on DraftKings)
Can he keep the good times rolling?
After recommending him as a bet to win the Cognizant Classic, Henley very nearly cashed us a full placement ladder from Top 20 all the way up to outright winner this past weekend. With half a round left, he sat as the co-leader. He ultimately golfed a few tough holes and settled for a T6, his third Top 20 (and Top 10) this year.
He hasn't finished worse than T39 this year, backed by his elite putter, excellent approach and 9th-ranked accuracy off the tee.
He's got a touch of value to win, but we're just going to zero in on him to secure a Top 20 at odds of +140, with our model's 44.9% probability identifying fair odds of just +120.
Justin Rose Top 20 (+500 on DraftKings)
How about a little longshot to close it out?
Justin Rose is a TOUR veteran and while his best days are likely behind him, he's shown he can still take the field to task and push for contention.
He's played just three events this year with results on the extremes - two missed cuts and a T3. That T3 was at Pebble Beach, featuring many of this field's contenders, including McIlroy, Scheffler and Henley.
He's +500 to secure a Top 20 finish with a 23.3% probability from our model which would make fair odds of +330, a big-time edge of 7.3%.
If you really think Rose is a true contender to win, consider a over light ladder on him with his appealing Top 10 (+1400) and Top 5 (+4000) odds.
Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictionsfor every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.
- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament
- Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
- Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
- PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR
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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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