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2024 Paris Olympics Golf Betting: Who Will Win Gold with Scottie Scheffler Favored?
The 2024 Paris Olympics are fully underway and the Men's Golf competition promises to be another exciting event on the 2024 calendar, with the world's top-ranked players competing for gold, bronze and silver. PGA, LIV and amateur golfers will all take the stage, setting up an event that will look different compared to our weekly PGA tournaments. This year, the competition is as tough as ever, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leading the way and eight of the OWGR Top 10 ranked golfers hitting the links.
Already home to our cutting-edge golf predictions for the PGA TOUR and every major tournament, our supremely talented data team have run a customized model for the Men's golf tournament at the Paris Olympics, identifying the medal probabilities for each contender, as well as where the smart bets are.
Let's get into it!
RELATED: Big Money Backing USA at 2024 Olympics
2024 Olympics Golf: Men's Top 10 Medal Probabilities Predicted by A.I.
Below you will find out Top 10 projected win probabilities to secure the Gold medal, as well as each golfer's likelihood of taking home Silver, Bronze or any medal. You'll see 11 golfers, as there is a three-way tie for the 10th spot.
The remainder of the field is all <2% to secure the gold medal.
| Player & Dimers Rank | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Any Medal |
| Scottie Scheffler #1 | USA | 24.50% | 14.30% | 10.10% | 48.80% |
| Xander Schauffele #2 | USA | 19.70% | 12.70% | 9.50% | 41.90% |
| Rory McIlroy #3 | IRE | 8.70% | 8.80% | 7.60% | 25.10% |
| Collin Morikawa #4 | USA | 7.80% | 7.80% | 6.70% | 22.40% |
| Jon Rahm #6 | ESP | 4.50% | 5.30% | 4.80% | 14.50% |
| Ludvig Aberg #8 | SWE | 3.80% | 4.90% | 5.10% | 13.70% |
| Corey Conners #11 | CAN | 3.80% | 3.70% | 4.40% | 11.90% |
| Tommy Fleetwood #14 | ENG | 2.60% | 3.90% | 4.20% | 10.60% |
| Hideki Matsuyama #17 | JPN | 2.30% | 3.30% | 3.60% | 9.20% |
| Shane Lowry #16 | IRE | 2.30% | 3.30% | 3.70% | 9.30% |
| Viktor Hovland #18 | NOR | 2.30% | 3.20% | 3.20% | 8.70% |
Gold Medal Contender: Scottie Scheffler
Surprised? Us neither. It may not be an official PGA TOUR event or a major, but it's a golf competition with Scottie Scheffler in it which means he's the favorite until we're given a reason otherwise.
As usual, DimersBOT agrees with his placement atop the odds with a 24.5% probability secure Gold, translating to a fair price of +300. He's got almost a 50/50 chance of brining home hardware/
You'll presently find Scheffler's best odds to win at +400 on BetMGM, presenting a nearly 5% edge in value!
Silver Medal Contender: Xander Schauffele
Fresh off his second career major, also his second of the year, with a win at The Open, Schauffele is back in action on European soil as he chases a Gold medal. He's our model's second-most likely winner at the Olympics with a 19.7% probability, and just one of two golfers with at least a double-digit probability to take home the Silver medal.
He's the reigning Gold medal winner, thought that was before Scottie Scheffler truly burst onto the scene. At +550, you're getting a little value on Schauffele to repeat, as his fair odds should be +400 according to our model.
Bronze Medal Contender: Rory McIlroy
Rounding out the top three most-likely gold medal winners is Rory McIlroy who will be representing Ireland at the Paris games. He edges out our third U.S. contender, Collin Morikawa, but just .9% to win Gold, though he picks up a 3% greater chance to secure any medal compared to Morikawa.
His 8.7% probability means his fair odds to win the Gold should be +1050, however you can't get him any longer than +850 (BetMGM), so if you're looking for a longer odds play, we'd recommend digging deeper into the Top 10 projections.
EVERY GOLFER RANKED: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
USA Golfer Projections
There are four golfers from the United States repping the nation in the Olympics tournament, with all four planted firmly in the OWGR Top 10 and all but Wyndham Clark (36th) in the Top 10 of our model's customized rankings.
As displayed above, you can see Scottie Scheffler (24.5%) and Xander Schauffele (19.7%) lead the way for the USA at the top, as well as Collin Morikawa (7.8%) in the Top 5 to win Gold. They each get an any medal probability over 22%.
Wyndham Clark is the only one who falls well outside the top contenders, finding himself with just a 1.4% probability win and a 5.4% chance of securing any medal. Shopping around for Clark's odds is key as he varies from +4500 to +6000 and as long as +7000 depending on your book, so if you want to back him, make sure you get the best price!
As Dimers reported, the USA remains the heavy favorite for the most gold and total medals, and Golf presents yet another opportunity for the country to dominate the competition.
Dimers' Golf Betting Resources:
- In-House Golf Rankings - Our in-house rankings for every golfer
- Weekly Golf Tournament Predictions - Predictions for every tournament
- Golf News - The latest odds and Golf tournament information
The 2024 Paris Olympics Golf competition is set to be an exciting event, with top players from around the world vying for the prestigious Olympic medals. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm lead the pack for gold for their respective home countries, but the competition is fierce, and anything can happen on the course in Paris.
For more information about the players and the golf tournament at the 2024 Olympics, visit the Olympics Golf official website.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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