2024 NFL Season Preview: MVP Award, AFC Win Totals and the NFL Playoffs

We’re a little over two months out from the 2024-25 NFL season, rapidly approaching as we’re getting into OTAs, training camps, preseason games and soon enough, Week 1.

We love finding early value, especially on a futures bet, so we’re using our custom models built by our top-notch data scientists to see if we can do just that across a number of NFL futures markets, months before we dig int our NFL Player Props and Best NFL Bets.

As Dimers revealed this offseason, we’ve begun running our NFL season models for win totals and playoff probabilities. With these insights, we’ve already uncovered edges against the books, plus teams that you should fade or tail this season in our NFC preview.

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Our social media and editorial content creator, Dave Garofolo, is going to use that data, plus a little common football knowledge to find some more longshot bets worth a look in the early summer, hopefully paying out dividends come the end of the regular NFL season.

We’ll be using BetMGM odds for reference, where you can currently unlock three months of our Dimers Pro subscription service for just a $10 bet.

Let’s dig in!

AFC Futures Bets Worth a Look

This feature is split into two parts – the NFC and the AFC. For our futures look at the whole NFL regardless of conference, check out our 2024 NFL Season Preview: Early Betting Insights and High-Probability Betsarticle.

Houston Texans

BET: Texans/Jaguars Exact Division Order (+400)

Could regression be coming for the Texans? On paper, they should be one of the top teams in the AFC or even the whole league.

We give them a very strong chance to win the division, 44.8% compared to the Jaguars at just 24.5% and the Colts at 22.4%, However, they get just a 46.6% probability to go over their 9.5 win total.

At just +105 to win the division, consider one of their exact finish props, with Houston in 1st and the Jaguars in 2nd.

Indianapolis Colts

BET: Exactly 7 wins (+500), Exactly 6 wins (+700)

The Colts are a big fade from DimersBOT this season. Between the young, upstart Texans, the Titans' improved offense and the Jaguars expected to rebound after a disappointing finish last year, there's just not enough room for the Colts to succeed.

Our model projects them with a 67.6% probability to miss the playoffs, presenting a 9.4% edge on that bet. Similarly they are projected to go under their 8.5 win total with a 60.5% probability.

MORE: Our NFL Futures Odds and Probabilities

Tennessee Titans

BET: Exactly 7 wins (+500), Exactly 8 wins (+700)

For the first time in a long time, the Titans might be a pass-heavy offense in the wake of Derrick Henry's departure and their WR tandem of Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins the new focal points.

Rookie QB Will Levis showed spunk last year and the Titans could be in line to surprise, with our model giving them a 52.7% probability to go over their 6.5 win total.

That's a plus-money bet on its own, but why not sprinkle a little on their two most likely win total results if they should go over?

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New York Jets

BET: Aaron Rodgers to win MVP (+2000)

Despite Rodgers' return, our model is cautious about the success of the Jets this season. 

After his season was infamously cut short just a handful of plays into Week 1, how Rodgers comes back will be a major storyline this year. We're borderline on their 9.5 win total (52.8% to the under), but they are less than 3% behind the Bills, who saw some big roster shakeup, to win the division.

There are 10 QBs with odds shorter than Rodgers and some of them like Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott will need everything to go right for them to be in contention. Aaron Rodgers just needs to be Aaron Rodgers.

RELATED: Should You Buy any Hard Knocks Hype for New York Giants?

Cincinnati Bengals

BET: Joe Burrow Comeback Player of the Year (+240)

Our model projects the Bengals with the second-best chance to win the AFC North this season, just 2.4% behind the favored Ravens. This division should be fairly competitive, perhaps with the exception of the Steelers so these teams could beat up on each a bit.

For that reason, we're projecting the Bengals for under 10.5 wins with a 55.8% probability, presenting a solid 7.5% edge.

However, 9 or 10 wins could win this division, and will be enough to make the playoffs, meaning a healthy Joe Burrow could be in line for Comeback Player of the Year if he can beat out the favorite Aaron Rodgers.

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.