2024 NFL Season Preview: Early Betting Insights and High-Probability Bets

Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, and with it comes a wealth of early betting opportunities. Leveraging a sophisticated model that factors in key offensive players, market signals, and team ratings, several high-value early bets have started to emerge.

This early season preview will highlight the most promising bets right now, offering insights into why these teams present good opportunities against the sportsbooks' market. Let’s dive into these NFL best bets with high probabilities and edges that you should consider for the upcoming season.

Please note, these projections will update and evolve as the season nears, but, right now, the below plays represent significant value for early shoppers.

Best Bet: Super Bowl 2025

San Francisco 49ers to Win Super Bowl LIX

The 49ers are heavily favored by our NFL Futures model to make a deep playoff run and potentially win Super Bowl LIX. Key offensive players such as RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and TE George Kittle are major contributors to this high rating. 

The team's offensive depth and playmaking ability make them a formidable opponent, and their robust defensive unit, even though not directly accounted for in the model, adds to their overall strength. This combination of factors justifies the strong edge on the 49ers winning the 2025 Super Bowl at Caesars Superdome.

Best Bets: NFL Playoffs

Chicago Bears to Miss Playoffs

62.7% Probability, 10.8% Edge

The Bears are projected to struggle this season. Despite having promising young talents, the model indicates significant hurdles in their path to the playoffs. With a 62.7% probability of missing the playoffs and a substantial edge of 10.8%, this bet stands out. Key factors include uncertainties around the development of rookie QB - and No.1 Pick - Caleb Williams and the overall competitiveness of the NFC North.

Dimers also revealed another way to bet on the Bears here.

Indianapolis Colts to Miss Playoffs

67.6% Probability, 9.4% Edge

The Colts are another team projected to fall short of the playoffs. The model places a 67.6% probability on this outcome, driven by uncertainties surrounding the performance of returning QB Anthony Richardson, and a roster that may not be sufficiently competitive. Despite some promising pieces, the edge here is significant, making this a strong bet.

San Francisco 49ers to Make Playoffs

87.3% Probability, 5.3% Edge

Reinforcing their Super Bowl contention, the 49ers are heavily favored to secure a playoff spot with an 87.3% probability. Given their offensive prowess and depth, this bet carries a relatively lower edge of 5.3%, but it underscores the 49ers' expected dominance this season.

2024 NFL Season Win Totals

New England Patriots Over 4.5 Wins

71.1% Probability, 10.5% Edge

Despite a challenging AFC East, the Patriots are projected to surpass 4.5 wins. The model's 71.1% probability reflects confidence in their ability to find victories against weaker opponents and capitalize on any potential upsets. With a 10.5% edge, this bet offers solid value.

Tennessee Titans Over 6.5 Wins

52.7% Probability, 6.4% Edge

The Titans are another team with a favorable outlook, projected to win more than 6.5 games. The edge here is 6.4%, driven by a combination of their revamped running game and a resilient defense. The Titans' ability to grind out wins in close games supports this bet.

New York Giants Over 6.5 Wins

52.3% Probability, 6.3% Edge

The Giants are expected to build on last season’s improvements, with a 52.3% probability of exceeding 6.5 wins. The edge here is 6.3%, indicating moderate confidence in their roster and coaching. A more consistent performance from QB Daniel Jones and the defense can push the Giants over this threshold.

Dimers has also covered the Giants' feature on Hard Knocks this offseason.

New Orleans Saints Over 7.5 Wins

65.6% Probability, 8% Edge

The Saints are projected to have a strong season, with a 65.6% probability of winning more than 7.5 games. Their edge of 8% is driven by stability at the quarterback position and a robust defense. The relatively weak NFC South also contributes to this favorable outlook.

Carolina Panthers Over 4.5 Wins

76.2% Probability, 8% Edge

The Panthers are another team expected to improve, with a 76.2% probability of surpassing 4.5 wins. An edge of 8% reflects confidence in their young core, including projecting significant improvement from QB Bryce Young and a solid supporting cast. The team’s overall potential and favorable matchups support this bet.

New York Jets Under 9.5 Wins

52.8% Probability, 6.1% Edge

The Jets are projected to struggle despite the return of Aaron Rodgers. The model gives a 52.8% probability of winning fewer than 9.5 games, with an edge of 6.1%. Key concerns include offensive line issues and the competitiveness of the AFC East.

Cincinnati Bengals Under 10.5 Wins

55.8% Probability, 7.5% Edge

The Bengals face a tough schedule and potential regression, leading to a 55.8% probability of under 10.5 wins. With a 7.5% edge, this bet highlights potential vulnerabilities, including injuries and defensive inconsistencies.

Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 Wins

55.1% Probability, 9.7% Edge

The Browns are projected to fall short of 8.5 wins, with a 55.1% probability and a significant edge of 9.7%. Key factors include questions around QB Deshaun Watson’s performance and overall team cohesion. Despite talent on the roster, uncertainties loom large.

Indianapolis Colts Under 8.5 Wins

60.5% Probability, 5.9% Edge

In line with their playoff projections, the Colts are also expected to win fewer than 8.5 games. The 60.5% probability and 5.9% edge reflect skepticism about their roster depth and ability to compete in a tough AFC South.

Houston Texans Under 9.5 Wins

53.4% Probability, 7.1% Edge

The Texans are another team facing a challenging season, with a 53.4% probability of under 9.5 wins. The 7.1% edge is driven by a young and developing roster, with key positions still in flux. The Texans' rebuilding phase supports this conservative outlook.

Chicago Bears Under 8.5 Wins

53.3% Probability, 9.1% Edge

Reinforcing their playoff outlook, the Bears are also expected to win fewer than 8.5 games. The 53.3% probability and 9.1% edge indicate a likely struggle, with key concerns around consistency and competitiveness in a tough division.

Arizona Cardinals Under 6.5 Wins

45.3% Probability, 5.8% Edge

Finally, the Cardinals are projected to face significant challenges, with a 45.3% probability of winning fewer than 6.5 games. The 5.8% edge reflects skepticism about their ability to overcome roster deficiencies and compete effectively in the NFC West.

Conclusion

The 2024 NFL season presents numerous betting opportunities with high probabilities and edges. From the 49ers' strong Super Bowl prospects to the Patriots' expected win totals, each bet provides a strategic edge based on detailed analysis and modeling. As the season progresses, these insights can help guide your betting decisions, offering value against the market. Good luck, gamble responsibly, and may your bets be favorable!