Who Will Win the Home Run Derby? Odds, Predictions, Records and Past Winners

The 2024 MLB All-Star Break is nearly here and with it comes the legendary Home Run Derby, featuring some of the most powerful sluggers in the game competing against the clock in a bracketed showdown for midsummer glory.

Stars like two-time champ Pete Alonso, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson and elite hitter Bobby Witt Jr. will take the stage at Globe life Field in Arlington, Texas on Monday, July 15, 2024.

Before the festivities get underway, Dimers has your back with some key insights, notable bets and of course, our staff picks for fun.

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Two-time champ Pete Alonso is looking for his third Home Run Derby title

2024 MLB Home Run Derby Rules and Format

There's been a little shakeup to the Home Run Derby format this year. Rather than pitting seeds against one another in the opening round, all eight players will compete against the pool, with the top four sluggers advancing to Round 2.

From there, we'll see the batters seeded based on their first-round HR total as we move to a knockout stage.

Tiebreakers in the first round will be based on the longest home run hit by either player.

There is also now a pitch count. The first two rounds will have time limit of three minutes and pitch count of 40, whichever comes first. The final will be two minutes long and a maximum of 27 pitches.

Should a batter qualify for extra time, their bonus pitches will not be times.

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Who Will Win the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby?

Below are the odds for each of the eight competitors to win the Home Run Derby, along with their regular-season home run total.

We're looking at FanDuel odds here as their markets are widely available and they have that excellent World Series promo for the MLB All-Star Game.

Home Run Derby Facts

Here's some fast facts that may help you with your home run research as we look back on the last couple years of Home Run Derby action for a little insight:

Who has won the most Home Run Derby titles?

Ken Griffey Jr. has won three times, a MLB record. Pete Alonso is one away from tying his record, while Prince Fielder (2009, 2012) and Yoenis Céspedes (2013, 2014) have also won twice.

What is the record for the most home runs in a Home Run Derby?

That title belongs to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who set the record with 91 home runs in the 2019 Derby.

What is the record for the most home runs in a single round?

At 22 years old, Julio Rodriguez hit 41 home runs in the opening round at T-Mobile Park in Seattle the 2023 Home Run Derby, beating the previous record set by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., by just one.

What is the longest home run ever hit in the Home Run Derby?

Juan Soto's 520-foot home run in the 2019 Home Run Derby is the longest HR ever recorded in the Home Run Derby, though maybe helped by the event taking place at Coors Field in Colorado that year.

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Dimers Home Run Derby Picks

Below are my picks for the Home Run Derby. Note that these are not based on Dimers data as the exhibition nature of this event doesn't align with our models designed for in-season play. These are just the bets I'll be sprinkling for Monday's action.

I'm mostly using my leftover Dinger Tuesday bonus bets here so we're not risking much of our own bankroll.

Winners: Gunnar Henderson (+480), Jose Ramirez (+1500)

Why Gunnar Henderson? He's got the most home runs of this group and he has the third-highest odds. The books have a habit of underestimating this man - how else do you think i got Gunnar at plus-money to hit 30 home runs this year?

For Jo-Ram, it's a longshot play and that's why I like it. In an exhibition event, anything can happen and Ramirez has 23 home runs this year, despite his analytics not looking like those of a top slugger. What he does do well is hit the damn baseball and with everyone getting meatballs all night, there's no reason he can't contend.

Exact Result: Gunnar Henderson Over Pete Alonso (+2200)

With the new format in the first round, we don't have to worry about losing someone early to seeding. We just need the guys who are gonna hit the most dingers.

We've gotta go with Gunnar Henderson here - he's clubbed 26 home runs this season, the most of anyone in the Derby. He's been hungry for home runs lately - maybe storing them all up for this event.

For his opponent in the final, I'm taking Pete Alonso to compete for his third title all the way to the end. He knows how to conserve his energy in this event and unless he faces another 40-homer first round, he should land himself in the Top 4 early.

Then give me Gunnar to win the whole thing, showing Pete this is a younger man's game and he's only getting older. At +2200, we'll roll some lunch money dice.

Player to Hit Longest Home Run: Marcell Ozuna (+330), Gunnar Henderson (+650)

Bobby Witt Jr. has the longest regular-season HR of anyone in this group at 468 feet, a Top 10 distance on the year. He's also the favorite at +170. Instead, I like Marcell Ozuna, whose HR metrics rival or best Witt Jr. in nearly all but Bat Speed.

I've already explained why I like Henderson and at +650, he's a great value to me in this market and he's hit plenty of nukes this year.

For a longshot play, sprinkle on Adolis Garcia. His power is down this year compared ot his 39-HR season last year, but he can get a hold of one and at massive +1400 odds, you could do worse for five bucks or so.

Total Home Runs Hit 270.5: OVER (-113)

Last year's Derby obliterated the total, the most ever hit in history with 341 home runs. This year's pitch count may change things up but that's still a huge over.  There were 291 in 2022 and 309 in 2021. 

Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna and Pete Alonso are all in this thing. We're going over, folks. Dare I say, way over.

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