2023 NFL Win Totals - Picks and Projections for Every NFC Team

We're less than a month out from kickoff to the 2023-24 NFL season! Take a look at our model's win/loss projections for every team in the NFC.

As preseason games roll on, it's hard not to get excited about every single team in the NFL. When the records are 0-0, every team can talk themselves into a playoff run. But the truth is only two teams will make the Super Bowl and only one of them will take home the title of NFL champions.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’re going to be analyzing win totals for every single team in the NFL. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we’ll look at the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT, and determine which side of the Over/Under you should bet for each NFL team. 

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North coming soon

NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South 

NFC Team By Team Win/Loss Projections

Detroit Lions

2022-23 Record: 9-8, 2nd place in NFC North

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: The Lions are favored to win the NFC North at -145 and have a 36% chance to do so according to DimersBOT. Detroit has invested heavily in young talent like running back Jahmyr Gibbs and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. With the way the Lions finished last season, they should be in line to make the playoffs for the first time in years.

However, that doesn't mean it is a wise bet to hammer the Over for the Lions' win totals. With so much of the public looking to back Detroit, you have to pay a hefty price. DimersBOT projects the Lions to finish the season with nine wins, finishing with Under 9.5 wins 62% of the time.

Recommendation: Under 9.5 Wins (+100) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Minnesota Vikings

2022 Record: 13-5, lost in Wildcard Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Outlook:  It's rare to see a 13-win team with an O/U win total set at 8.5 heading into the season. Critics say that the point differential last year pointed to Minnesota being closer to a .500 team, but with Aaron Rodgers leaving the division, the door is open for Kirk Cousins and company to repeat as NFC North champions.

DimersBOT rates Minnesota with a 29.4% probability to take the crown, and that's only 7% less than the consensus favorite Detroit, at nearly three-times better odds. As far as their win total goes, it's going to be close. Our model projects Minnesota to finish Under 8.5 wins with a 51% probability, however the most frequent total they finished with in our simulations was nine wins. Without a strong lean, we recommend a stay away here.

Recommendation: (LEAN) Under 8.5 Wins (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Chicago Bears

2022 Record: 3-14, 4th place in NFC North

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Outlook: The Bears feel as if they are a year away from being a year away, but Justin Fields is lighting up the preseason. DimersBOT agrees with our skepticism, marking Chicago down as just a 19% likelihood to win the NFC North division despite Fields' superstar potential. At +425 odds, there's not enough value there. If you are looking to back Chicago, the more exciting play would be to take their Over on their win total of 7.5 wins.

DimersBOT believes it will be close, giving the Bears a 51% chance to go Over 7.5 wins. However, their most frequent total at the end of our simulations was finishing with exactly seven wins. While we give the slight edge to the Over 7.5 wins here, at -130 odds, that's not great value.

Recommendation: Stay away, lean Over 7.5 Wins (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

RELATED: NFC North Division Preview

Green Bay Packers

2022 Record: 8-9, 3rd place in NFC North

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Outlook: While Aaron Rodgers has left the building, in steps Jordan Love, who has looked the part in early opportunities, flanked by talented young wide receivers like Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. Green Bay will look different, but in a wide open division, they have a strong chance to stay relevant.

DimersBOT agrees, marking Green Bay with a 56% probability of going over 7.5 wins, with their most likely result being finishing the season with eight wins. That makes betting the Packers Over one of our favorite plays of the preseason.

Recommendation: Over 7.5 Wins (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Philadelphia Eagles

2022-23 Record: 14-3, lost Super Bowl to KC Chiefs

2023 Win Total: O/U 11.5

Outlook: Expect more of the same for the Eagles in 2023. They’re favored to win the NFC East at -110 and at a 61% chance to do so from DimersBOT, you’re getting 10% +EV in the odds right now. They're one of the most popular bets to win the Super Bowl, but there's no reason to expect a drop off from Jalen Hurts and company.

However, this line is too high. DimersBOT projects Philadelphia to finish this season with 11 wins, but gives an insanely high probability of 63% that the Eagles finish with Under their 11.5 win total. This is one of our strongest recommended plays heading into the season.

Recommendation: Under 11.5 Wins (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Dallas Cowboys

2022 Record: 12-5, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Outlook: As one of the most popular teams from both a fan perspective and more importantly a betting one, it’s tough to find value on the Cowboys given how much money they bring in for the books. That’s not to say you shouldn’t bet them if you’re a believer, but their +190 odds to win the division should be out to +300 based on the 26% chance given by our model. 

Like the Eagles, the Cowboys win total is too high according to DimersBOT. Our model gives Dallas a whopping 63% chance of finishing with under 10.5 wins, and the most frequent exact win total from our simulations was 10 wins for Dallas. At -135 odds, that's a little too juicy for our liking, but it's still a safe bet.

Recommendation: Under 10.5 Wins (-135) at FanDuel Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

New York Giants

2022 Record: 9-7-1, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Outlook: From the analytics side of things, our model gives the Giants a 10.1% chance to win the division which lines up pretty well with their win total set at a sub-.500 record. The NFC as a whole is top-loaded and their path to reach a Super Bowl isn’t any easier than to a division title. However, we still believe the Giants will be a good football team, behind coach of the year Brian Daboll.

Their plus-money odds of +160 to make the playoffs are pretty appealing, as is their Over 7.5 wins. DimersBOT graded them out winning eight games this season on average, and gives New York a 52% probability to win Over 7.5 games. At plus-money, this is a great value play.

Recommendation: Over 7.5 Wins (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Washington Commanders

2022 Record: 8-8-1, 4^th place in NFC East

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Outlook: The Commanders are a total fade from any division, conference and obviously Super Bowl perspective. They managed to scrape out eight wins last year, but getting +100 even money at the over 6.5 isn’t quite enticing enough. They have an incredibly difficult schedule that outside of the standard six games against the rest of the NFC East, includes games against the Bills, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers and Rams.

We’d recommending taking the Under 5.5 at +150 or even under 4.5 at +270. This Washington team could realistically be playing for a Top 5 draft pick. DimersBOT gives Washington a 54% probability to go Under 6.5 wins, with their most frequent result finishing with exactly six wins. You can safely play the Under.

Recommendation: Under 6.5 Wins (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

MORE: NFC East Predictions

San Francisco 49ers

2022-23 Record: 13-4, lost NFC Championship

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Outlook: While there are some questions with the QB situation, the 49ers are favored to win the division at -160, which despite the juice, actually presents value given our probability of 67%. The 49ers get the second-best odds and probability to win the NFC at 21% and +425, but there’s not much value there and it’s reasonable to expect a better price will reveal itself this season.

To win the Super Bowl, you can get the 49ers at +1000 which implies a 9% chance, while our model suggests an 11.5% chance. There's also a high likelihood of the Over 10.5, with our model gives a 56% probability to occur, with San Francisco's most frequent win total in our simulations being exactly 11 wins, although at -145 odds, you have to pay a decent price.

Recommendation: Over 10.5 Wins (-145) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Seattle Seahawks

2022 Record: 9-8, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: From our model’s perspective, the Seahawks are mispriced and not in the good way. Their best odds are at +200 to win the NFC West, but DimersBOT gives them just a 15.3% chance to do so, translating to a fair price of roughly +550. To win it all? We’ve got Seattle at a 1.7% chance. While that doesn’t sound like much, and it’s not, it’s in the top half of our probabilities so you can imagine how slim the chances are for the teams below.

With that said, DimersBOT is fading Seattle's win total at the current line of 9.5 wins, giving the Seahawks a massive 71% probability to finish with Under 9.5 wins, with the most common outcome being exactly eight wins. This is one of the best plays on the board.

Recommendation: Over 9.5 Wins (-155) at DraftKings Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Los Angeles Rams

2022 Record: 5-12, 3rd place in NFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Outlook:The Rams present a promising possible value if things go their way this season. Our model is predicting a bounce-back year for the Rams, and one in which the 49ers’ muddy QB situation could lead to an opening in the NFC West. Behold, their 16% probability to win the division at +1000. Our model makes their fair price all the way down to +500, giving immense value on this bet. 

If the Rams are healthy and competitive enough to win the division, they’ll be able to contend for the division title. DimersBOT gives them a real chance to do so, giving the Rams a humongous 74% probability of crushing their win total of 6.5 wins, with their most common outcome from our simulations being exactly eight wins. You won't find better NFL win total value than this.

Recommendation: Over 6.5 Wins (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Arizona Cardinals

2022 Record: 4-13, last place in NFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 4.5

Outlook: The Cardinals effectively begin a rebuild this season, though without some of the bells and whistles like a healthy quarterback, star receiver and a brick wall o-line. While this team’s ceiling is certainly capped around 5-7 wins and missing the playoffs, there is value to be found even if we’re not backing them to be the worst team, of which there are several candidates in 2023, with the Commanders, Texans and Colts among them.

DimersBOT gives Arizona a huge 62% probability of going Over 4.5 wins, with the most likely outcome being exactly five wins this season. This is a strong play, given that you can get plus-money +100 odds on the Cards to win five or more games.

Recommendation: Over 4.5 Wins (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook

MORE: NFC West Predictions

New Orleans Saints

2022-23 Record: 7-10, 3^rd place in NFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: DimersBOT calculates a 46.5% chance of New Orleans securing the NFC South title this year and at odds of +130, that’s a small edge of about 3%. To win the NFC, the Saints actually have the fourth-highest probability per our model at 8%. This comes with another edge of about 3% with their best odds at +1700.

The NFC is generally very weak, with barely seven playoff-tier teams, this is a decent play ahead of the season’s start. Specific to their pre-season win total, DimersBOT gives the Saints a 53% probability of going Over 9.5 wins, with the most common result being exactly 10 wins for the Saints. At plus-money odds, we love this play!

Recommendation: Over 9.5 Wins (+105) at FanDuel Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Atlanta Falcons

2022 Record: 7-10, 4^th place in NFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Outlook: The Over 8.5 is juiced to -120. This is incredibly interesting, because with the books’ line for the Saints, they have them both landing on nine wins, yet the Saints are favored in the division (though both are plus money). DimersBOT gives Atlanta a 56% of finishing with Over 8.5 wins, although the most likely outcome was Atlanta finishing with exactly eight wins this season.

For that reason, we can only lightly recommend betting Atlanta to go Over this number. We expect the Falcons to be competitive, but there's not a huge edge here.

Recommendation: LEAN Over 8.5 Wins (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Carolina Panthers

2022 Record: 7-10, 2^nd place in NFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Outlook: What do you know, yet another NFC South team that is projected to finish with eight wins. Their win total is -120 to go Over 7.5, which is about in line with our projections’ most likely record of eight to nine wins for the Panthers. In the exact wins market, our two most common results are 8 (+600) and 9 (+700) making strong value there if you believe they eclipse their 7.5 line.

Interestingly, the books have their Over 7.5 favored, which maps with our model's projections. DimersBOT gives Carolina a 56% of going Over 7.5 wins, with the highest probability outcome being exactly eight wins. This presented a decent edge at -120 odds.

Recommendation: Over 7.5 Wins (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 Record: 8-9, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Outlook:

The Buccaneers get a 6.3% chance to win the NFC South but their laughable price of +800 implies nearly double those chances. They have less than a 1% chance from our model to win either the NFC or Super Bowl, which....isn't likely. The Bucs have a brutal start to the season, with games against MIN, PHI, NO, DET and BUF in the first seven weeks. We give them a 25% chance to finish with exactly four (+600) or five (+550) wins.

They’re a great bet at +700 to have the fewest wins in the league, as DimersBOT gives Tampa Bay just a 53% probability of going Under 6.5 wins, with most likely outcome being exactly six wins. If they get off to a cold start, there's a great chance they decide to shut things down. We can't recommend going heavy here, as -140 doesn't provide much of an edge.

Recommendation: Under 6.5 Wins (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook

MORE: NFC South Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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