2022 NBA MVP Nikola Jokic: How To Win on NBA MVP Futures Bets

The NBA's announcement on Wednesday that Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had won the 2022 MVP award, going back-to-back, was something I had been hoping for since December, not only as a Nuggets fan but as a bettor who had placed two futures bets on the big man.

At the end of the day, I had significant profits, which made this my second-biggest win in sports betting (my biggest payout was on the NC Dinos Korean baseball team in 2020 when “Insomnia Ball” in the KBO was about the only live sport to watch and wager on, but that is a story for another column).

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The timing of the NBA’s announcement was a surprise to me because it was rumored that it would not happen until June, but the decision to give the MVP award to Jokic was not that much of a surprise.

After all, ESPN’s final straw poll of MVP voters showed Jokic with a clear lead over Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was named MVP in 2019 and 2020.

Although the MVP selection of the Serb with the soft touch undoubtedly irked fans in Philly and Milwaukee, it’s hard to argue with Jokic’s stats and achievements this year. Jokic ended the regular season averaging 27.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 7.9 assists on a team that was missing starters Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. for almost all of the season due to injuries.

I like to joke that the center dubbed “Joker” is a walking triple-double, a feat that he achieved a league-leading 19 times this season and 76 times in his career, which placed him seventh on the all-time list. He also became the first NBA player to top 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds, and 500 assists in a season.

Of course, there is a certain amount of luck involved in any wager.

In gambling terms, Jokic’s closing odds at the end of the regular season were as short as a paltry -500, a far cry from the +1000 and +1100 odds that I snatched up in December as well as his opening odds, which were as high as +1500 at some sportsbooks.

I had never placed an NBA futures MVP bet before, but Jokic’s odds in December were quite appealing. I always like to place futures odds as early as possible to get the best odds, so I try to target odds at 10-1 or higher that I think have a realistic chance of paying off.

I also like using free bets to take a shot at some higher potential payouts since this is not my cash bankroll. In the case of my Jokic wagers, I used a free bet from SI Sportsbook at +1000 odds and another free bet from DraftKings at +1100 odds.

I figured that the worst-case scenario would be that I would lose my free bets and my bankroll would remain intact. Six months later my decision look pretty prudent.

As far as handicapping was concerned, in December I noted that Jokic’s stats in points, assists, and rebounds were comparable to his numbers from the previous year, when he won his first MVP.

I shrugged off concerns over “voter fatigue” after learning that it really isn’t all that rare for players to win back-to-back MVP awards in the NBA. Jokic this year became the 13th player to do so, and Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry, LeBron James, Steve Nash, and Tim Duncan also have pulled off this feat in just the last two decades.

When I placed my bets on Jokic, Curry was the MVP odds-on favorite. While Curry and the Golden State Warriors were off to a great start, I was convinced that the Warriors’ torrid start to the season was not sustainable, and a team’s record is a big factor in the MVP race. At such short odds, I could live with Curry beating me.

Injury likely is the biggest risk in placing an MVP futures bet in the NBA, which is why I steered clear of Brooklyn Nets star Kevin Durant, who was just behind Curry in the odds in late December. Durant has a long history of injuries, and my fears came true when he injured his MCL in mid-January, effectively derailing his bid for MVP.

In my mind, that left two viable options: Joker and the Greek Freak. Jokic had slightly longer odds than Giannis, and I feared that voters would be reluctant to cast their ballots for the Bucks star just a year removed from his back-to-back. I took a deep breath and placed my two bets on Jokic. Now all I had to do was wait six months for the regular season to end while voters made up their minds.

I admit that I became nervous in January when Embiid had an offensive outburst, scoring 30 points in eight consecutive games. I cashed a few player props during his streak and contemplated placing an MVP bet on him in case Jokic lost the race. However, I was concerned because Embiid tends to be injury prone. In addition, Embiid’s longshot odds quickly plummeted, making the former longshot the new favorite.

Nicola Jokić has been named NBA MVP for a 2nd consecutive season.@TheFrankIsola and @Scalabrine discuss the news and the growth of the game internationally pic.twitter.com/9hxT9WhTSF

— SiriusXM NBA Radio (@SiriusXMNBA) May 15, 2022

I ended standing firm on my Jokic bets and hoping for the best.

Fortunately for me, this bet was no joke. After cashing my tickets, I would recommend using your free bets to take a chance on a longshot that looks enticing, place your futures bets early to get the best odds, say a prayer to the gambling gods, and wait to see if you end up with a big payday.