2022 MLB Home Run Derby: Why Julio Rodriguez’s Bat Speed Has the Advantage

I don't know about you, but for a betting man like myself, nothing satisfies me more than trying to find a compelling betting angle that nobody else has thought about before in a novelty sporting contest.

I think I've found one this year. And if I pull it off, I'll be a goddamn genius.

In a once-a-year type of event like the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby, trying to find that winning edge and some betting value among the field of participants with limited sample sizes or situational data to go off can be challenging. But that's if you're someone who doesn't like thinking outside the box.

Lucky for us, when it comes to the intertwining of sports and science, baseball nerds have spent well over a century breaking down the game and the mechanics of players into minute detail. When you compare some of the data available in baseball with regards to ball speeds, exit velocities, projected distances etc., there's just nothing else quite like baseball to science the absolute shit out the game.

And with that, I direct your attention to Mariners rookie, and 2022 MLB Home Run Derby participant, Julio Rodriguez - The Fastest Bat in the West.

Here's why you should be considering Rodriguez when laying down your bets for the Derby on Monday night:

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The MLB Have Just Started Tracking Bat Speed

For years now, when a baseball has been hit out of a ballpark in the Majors, we've known almost all of the intricate details. We know how fast the pitcher threw the ball, we know how hard the batter hit it, we know how far it travelled into the stands; but we never knew just how fast the batter actually swung the bat. Until this year.

Earlier this season, the MLB and their Statcast platform, began the task of tracking bat speed - i.e. How fast is a player swinging for a ball that made contact with a bat.

Cameras with frame rates of 300 frames per second were installed in two stadiums - Minute Maid Park in Houston, and Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, which just so happens to be the host of this year's Home Run Derby. 

Because the technology has only been active in two stadiums since mid-May, the sample size is admittedly small - but still intriguing. Of the batters who have stepped up to the plate, Julio Rodriguez leads everyone with a fastest average swing speed of 96.2MPH. The next closest on the list of anyone else who is appearing in Monday's Home Run Derby is Pete Alonso with a fastest average swing speed of 86.9MPH. With that said, Alonso does lay claim to the fastest single swing recorded, which was 107.8 MPH off Houston’s José Urquidy.

How Julio Rodriguez's Bat Speed May Impact the Home Run Derby

From the data collected so far, there's a clear trend in how fast you can swing the bat translating in how many home runs are hit. According to MLB.com, out of the swings that have been recorded that resulted in homers (more than 80 in total as of publishing), the average swing speed was 85.5 MPH, while doubles came in at 82.9 MPH and hits that were singles were logged at an average of 79.5 MPH. 

So, there are a couple of different ways that we, as bettors, can take this information and twist it to fit a narrative that we want. 

The first is that the faster you swing, the more swings you'll have, right? It stands to reason that if Julio Rodriguez swings the fastest on average of anyone else in the field, that he'll ultimately have more attempts at going yard. That's insanely important in this format where batters are given three minutes each in the opening round, and two minutes in the final round. 

Second, as the data proves - and is also pretty obvious - the faster the swing, the better chance you have of hitting a home run. 

The Home Run Derby is not only a game of power and strategy, but it's also a game of speed. Rodriguez has the advantage. 

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