2022 French Open Tennis: Rafael Nadal vs. Casper Ruud in the Men's Final

Does the greatest clay court player in the history of the sport have another Grand Slam title in him? We find out Sunday morning when Rafael Nadal attempts to win his 14th French Open championship, an achievement that would make him the oldest man to win at Roland Garros.

Dimers.com tennis expert Robert Williams discusses how you should bet.

Standing between Nadal and his 22nd Grand Slam championship is Casper Ruud, the first ever Norwegian man to appear in a Grand Slam final. Nadal struggled at times in the semifinal, but advanced when Alexander Zverev injured his ankle late in the second set and was forced to retire.

Nadal shook off four set points to win an opening-set tiebreaker, and the second set appeared destined for another breaker before Zverev went down in agony. Ruud cruised past Marin Cilic in four sets in his semifinal match.

After dropping the first set, Ruud settled in and dominated with the consistency that has enabled him to win 18 of 24 sets in France this year.

He had 41 winners and only 21 unforced errors and no double faults against Zverev. In three matches this week, he has 138 winners and only 64 unforced errors.

Ruud rarely beats himself, so expect some long points and games. And just maybe, a close match.  

Statistics courtesy of Statista

Why You Should Bet the Favorite Rafael Nadal (-600) 

The man just doesn’t lose on clay. Nadal has played in the French Open 17 times, compiling a 111-3 record en route to 13 championships. But he has put a lot of miles on his clay-caked Nikes since winning his first title in 2005, and he been vulnerable at times this year.

.@TomBrady on decorated tennis champion Rafael Nadal:

“There’s something to be learned from watching his determination, his strategy, everything that it takes for him to never take any moment for granted” #TIME100 https://t.co/j1JSD9Km8r

— TIME (@TIME) June 4, 2022

The second set of the semifinal marked the first time that Nadal had been broken four times in a set at Roland Garros. That could be a problem against Ruud, whose return game was impeccable against Cilic. 

Ruud had five breaks versus Cilic and out-aced him 16-10. Nadal should benefit from being relatively fresh. It looked like his match against Zverev could be headed to a five-hour marathon, but the injury to his opponent shortened it to just over three hours.

Nadal has dropped only three sets in France this year and should have the legs and stamina to run Ruud all over the court and really test the Norwegian’s endurance.  

Why to Bet the Underdog Casper Ruud (+450)

It remains to be seen how Ruud will respond to playing the biggest match of his life against a man he idolizes.

Ladies and gentlemen, your #RolandGarros final! 😍

Como en casa, @RafaelNadal & @CasperRuud98!
🏡 #RafaNadalAcademy 🏡 pic.twitter.com/0j0V2Z21fD

— Rafa Nadal Academy by Movistar (@rnadalacademy) June 3, 2022

This is the first time the 23-year-old has advanced past the fourth round of a major tournament.

Much like Nadal, Ruud pounds the ball with topspin and precision. Even though Ruud is playing ultra-consistent tennis at the moment, he can’t afford to try to out-rally the Spaniard.

That just won’t happen on clay. Ruud must remain aggressive and go for winners when he has the opportunity. After disposing of Cilic, Ruud lamented that he wasn’t aggressive enough in the first set, which he dropped 6-3.

He needs to come out firing against Nadal, which is easier said than done. 

Best Bet: Nadal (-600)

One of the most important jobs for handicappers is finding value in underdogs. Sportsbooks and casinos are built on favorites that go down in flames.

However, every way I break down this match, I just can’t make a case for Ruud.

The spread (-6.5) is too steep to recommend with confidence because Ruud is steady enough to keep this respectable.

Take a small profit on Nadal with a straight bet and throw him into some parlays.

Best Prop Bet: OVER 35 games 

This isn’t the same Nadal who ripped through so many French Open fields with utter domination. Ruud will get some breaks and keep this relatively close. I like the match to go four sets, with each set totaling nine or 10 games.  

Best Futures Bet: Coco Gauff at Wimbledon

While analyzing the men’s matchup, I couldn’t help but notice that Coco Gauff is available at a very generous price in the Wimbledon women’s tennis futures.

Gauff’s powerful game is well-suited to the grass, and she is available at a generous +1200.

Throw a unit or two on the American woman while you are placing your French Open men’s bets.

And keep following the Dimers.com Tennis Betting Hub for all the Wimbledon betting information you need to be a winner when the action starts at the All England Club later this month.