Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL game on October 21, 2023 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
4
3
Oct 21, 11PM Amalie Arena
Oct 21, 11PM Amalie Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Lightning | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Lightning | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
OT1 04:05 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jonas Johansson
OT1 03:49 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
OT1 03:20 Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
OT1 03:08 Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
OT1 02:47 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
OT1 02:04 Max Domi shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
OT1 02:04 Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Jonas Johansson
OT1 01:29 Shot on goal by John Klingberg saved by Jonas Johansson
OT1 00:46 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jonas Johansson
OT1 00:21 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 19:44 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:41 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:48 William Nylander shot blocked by Tanner Jeannot
P3 18:32 Victor Hedman shot blocked by William Nylander
P3 18:06 Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Joseph Woll
P3 16:49 Brayden Point shot blocked by David Kampf
P3 15:40 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 15:37 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 14:51 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mark Giordano
P3 14:33 Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Max Domi and David Kampf
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
OT
GOALS
ALL
End of 1st OT.
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jonas Johansson
Anthony Cirelli credited with hit on Auston Matthews in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
Giveaway by Nicholas Paul in offensive zone
Takeaway by Nicholas Paul in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
Nicholas Paul won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Klingberg saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jonas Johansson
David Kampf won faceoff against Luke Glendening in neutral zone
End of 3rd Period.
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
William Nylander shot blocked by Tanner Jeannot
Takeaway by Nicholas Paul in defensive zone
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by William Nylander
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Joseph Woll
Takeaway by Calle Jarnkrok in neutral zone
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by David Kampf
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jonas Johansson
T.J. Brodie credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mark Giordano
Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Max Domi and David Kampf
3-3
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mikey Eyssimont saved by Joseph Woll
Tanner Jeannot credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
Tanner Jeannot credited with hit on Timothy Liljegren in offensive zone
Nicholas Paul won faceoff against William Nylander in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
SHOT
Shot on goal by Calle Jarnkrok saved by Jonas Johansson
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Matthew Knies
2-3
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
SHOT
Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Max Domi
Mark Giordano credited with hit on Steven Stamkos in defensive zone
Steven Stamkos won faceoff against David Kampf in defensive zone
SHOT
David Kampf shot blocked by Steven Stamkos
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jonas Johansson
Takeaway by Nicholas Paul in neutral zone
SHOT
Waltteri Merela shot blocked by T.J. Brodie
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicholas Paul
Nicholas Paul won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Barre-Boulet saved by Joseph Woll
John Tavares won faceoff against Nicholas Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jonas Johansson
John Tavares won faceoff against Steven Stamkos in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Jonas Johansson
Luke Glendening won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Alex Barre-Boulet shot blocked by Jake McCabe
Jake McCabe credited with hit on Alex Barre-Boulet in defensive zone
Brayden Point won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Maple Leafs
SHOT
Shot on goal by David Kampf saved by Jonas Johansson
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Stamkos
Takeaway by Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Stamkos
SHOT
Shot on goal by T.J. Brodie saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Jake McCabe credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Timothy Liljegren
SHOT
Shot on goal by Waltteri Merela saved by Joseph Woll
Nicholas Paul won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Jonas Johansson
Luke Glendening won faceoff against David Kampf in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mark Giordano saved by Jonas Johansson
Takeaway by Mark Giordano in neutral zone
Steven Stamkos credited with hit on Morgan Rielly in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Joseph Woll
John Tavares credited with hit on Mikhail Sergachev in offensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Jake McCabe
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Timothy Liljegren shot blocked by Victor Hedman
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Jonas Johansson
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
Takeaway by Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
Erik Cernak credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Joseph Woll
Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tanner Jeannot saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
David Kampf shot blocked by Nick Perbix
David Kampf won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mikhail Sergachev saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Stamkos
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zach Bogosian saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Zach Bogosian
SHOT
Shot on goal by Conor Sheary saved by Joseph Woll
Max Domi credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mikhail Sergachev saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Erik Cernak
SHOT
Shot missed by Mitchell Marner
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jonas Johansson
Takeaway by Mitchell Marner in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Gregor saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Zach Bogosian shot blocked by Calle Jarnkrok
David Kampf won faceoff against Luke Glendening in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Waltteri Merela saved by Joseph Woll
John Tavares credited with hit on Nicholas Paul in defensive zone
Nicholas Paul won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Giveaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Nicholas Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
T.J. Brodie shot blocked by Victor Hedman
Giveaway by Erik Cernak in neutral zone
Steven Stamkos won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by David Kampf saved by Jonas Johansson
David Kampf won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
David Kampf won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot missed by Noah Gregor
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nicholas Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
John Tavares won faceoff against Tanner Jeannot in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Maple Leafs
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
SHOT
Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
SHOT
William Nylander shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
Takeaway by Mikhail Sergachev in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Paul saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shorthanded - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Brayden Point
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Jonas Johansson
Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Steven Stamkos in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - Nicholas Paul shot blocked by T.J. Brodie
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mark Giordano
Shorthanded - David Kampf won faceoff against Nicholas Paul in defensive zone
Penalty to William Nylander 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Mikhail Sergachev)
Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Power play - Victor Hedman shot blocked by David Kampf
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Mitchell Marner in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Mark Giordano
Power play - Nicholas Paul won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Penalty to John Klingberg 2 minutes for Illegal Check to Head (Drawn by Brandon Hagel)
SHOT
Shot missed by Maple Leafs
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Joseph Woll
Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
SHOT
Timothy Liljegren shot blocked by Victor Hedman
Stoppage
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Timothy Liljegren saved by Jonas Johansson
Nicholas Paul won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Joseph Woll
Shorthanded - Nicholas Paul won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
Shorthanded - Giveaway by Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jonas Johansson
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Luke Glendening in offensive zone
Penalty to Mikey Eyssimont 2 minutes for Illegal Equipment
SHOT
Mikey Eyssimont shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
SHOT
John Tavares shot blocked by Zach Bogosian
Luke Glendening won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Marner saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Waltteri Merela saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Stamkos
Pontus Holmberg credited with hit on Mikhail Sergachev in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Zach Bogosian shot blocked by T.J. Brodie
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Barre-Boulet saved by Joseph Woll
David Kampf credited with hit on Zach Bogosian in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jonas Johansson
Luke Glendening won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jonas Johansson
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tanner Jeannot saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tanner Jeannot saved by Joseph Woll
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Nicholas Paul won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
Maple Leafs replaced goalie. (Joseph Woll)
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Mikhail Sergachev and Steven Stamkos
1-3
Power play - Nicholas Paul won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone
Penalty to Jake McCabe 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Anthony Cirelli)
Erik Cernak credited with hit on Jake McCabe in defensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Steven Stamkos in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mark Giordano saved by Jonas Johansson
John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by T.J. Brodie saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Calle Jarnkrok shot blocked by Luke Glendening
SHOT
Shot missed by David Kampf
Brayden Point won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shot missed by Mitchell Marner
SHOT
Shot missed by Tyler Bertuzzi
SHOT
Shot missed by Mitchell Marner
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jonas Johansson
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Alex Barre-Boulet assisted by Nikita Kucherov
1-2
Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Alex Barre-Boulet credited with hit on John Klingberg in offensive zone
Brayden Point won faceoff against David Kampf in defensive zone
David Kampf won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Gregor saved by Jonas Johansson
Pontus Holmberg won faceoff against Luke Glendening in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Giveaway by Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Calle Jarnkrok
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Max Domi
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by John Klingberg saved by Jonas Johansson
SHOT
Power play - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jonas Johansson
Shorthanded - Luke Glendening won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Tyler Bertuzzi
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Brayden Point and Victor Hedman
1-1
Shorthanded - David Kampf won faceoff against Nicholas Paul in defensive zone
Stoppage - TV timeout
Penalty to Matthew Knies 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Mikhail Sergachev)
Takeaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Gregor saved by Jonas Johansson
Luke Glendening won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Luke Glendening won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Tanner Jeannot won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Jake McCabe
SHOT
Shot on goal by Calle Jarnkrok saved by Jonas Johansson
David Kampf won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
GOAL
Goal scored by William Nylander
1-0
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
Luke Glendening won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Luke Glendening credited with hit on David Kampf in neutral zone
Matthew Knies credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Takeaway by Matthew Knies in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
Erik Cernak credited with hit on Tyler Bertuzzi in defensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 52 | Shots on Goal | 33 | |||
| 43% | Faceoff Win % | 59% | |||
| 2/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/2 | |||
| 8 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 10 | Hits | 10 | |||
| 20 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 2 | Giveaways | 5 |
| |
|---|
| 52 | Shots on Goal | 33 | |||
| 43% | Faceoff Win % | 59% | |||
| 2/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/2 | |||
| 8 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 10 | Hits | 10 | |||
| 20 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 2 | Giveaways | 5 |
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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
- Date: Saturday, October 21, 2023
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Amalie Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Maple Leafs favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 7
- Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs -142, Lightning +122
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Maple Leafs: 52%
- Lightning: 48%
Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 52%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Lightning in the NHL game at Amalie Arena on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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