Cruz Azul vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Cruz Azul vs. Toluca Liga MX game on April 19, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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LIGA MX
Cruz Azul
2
:
2
Apr 20, 1:05AM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
Toluca
Apr 20, 1:05AM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
Cruz AzulCRA
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco (30')
J. Gallardo (43')
G. Fernandez (2')
C. Rotondi (45')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
TOL
0.0%
Draw
100.0%
CRA
0.0%
Win Probability
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Point of Game% ProbabilityCruz AzulTolucaDrawHTFT0255075100
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Point of Game% ProbabilityCruz AzulTolucaHTFT0255075100
Created with Highcharts 10.3.3Point of Game% ProbabilityOver 2.5Under 2.5HTFT0255075100
Match Timeline
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces J. Angulo
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: M. Bogusz replaces A. Montano
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: G. Giakoumakis replaces G. Fernandez
64'
Yellow Card
L. Faravelli (Cruz Azul) cautioned
62'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: C. Rodriguez replaces A. H. Gutierrez Torres
62'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: A. Morales replaces L. Romero
55'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: F. Romero replaces H. Herrera
55'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces E. del Villar
45'
Goal scored for Cruz Azul by C. Rotondi, assisted by A. Montano
2-2
45'
Yellow Card
H. Herrera (Toluca) cautioned
43'
Goal scored for Toluca by J. Gallardo, assisted by J. Angulo
1-2
42'
Yellow Card
E. del Villar (Toluca) cautioned
37'
Yellow Card
C. Rotondi (Cruz Azul) cautioned
33'
Yellow Card
W. Ditta (Cruz Azul) cautioned
30'
Goal scored for Toluca by J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
1-1
2'
Goal scored for Cruz Azul by G. Fernandez, assisted by C. Rotondi
1-0

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Cruz Azul vs. Toluca: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Cruz Azul vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, April 19, 2025
  • Time: 9:05 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez

Current Betting Odds

  • Moneyline Odds: Cruz Azul +270, Toluca +102, Draw +270

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Cruz Azul: 30.8%
  • Toluca: 45.6%
  • Draw: 23.6%

Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our most likely correct score for this Liga MX game is Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca, which has a correct score probability of 11%.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations. In some cases, a team can have a higher overall probability of winning, yet the most likely specific outcome (correct score) is a draw.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives Toluca a win probability of 45.6%, while Cruz Azul has a win probability of 30.8%. The chance of a draw is 23.6%.

Summary

Our Cruz Azul vs. Toluca predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert Liga MX predictions and the best Liga MX bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes Liga MX futures, Liga MX odds, and the latest Liga MX news.

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