Why are Warriors Still More Favored to Win the Western Conference than the Kings?

The NBA Playoffs are off to a hot start with upsets in the Western Conference and a Golden State Warriors team that finds itself in unfamiliar territory; a 2-0 series deficit to the Sacramento Kings who are fresh off ending a 17-year playoff drought, the longest across the NBA, NFL, MLB and NHL.

A 2-0 series deficit in the first round is tough to overcome, with those teams historically winning the series just 6.3% of the time. With that in mind, we’re going to dive into the futures market for both the Warriors and Kings and find some value!

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To capitalize on the bets we find in this market, be sure to take advantage of the sign-up bonuses offered by the best sportsbooks available to you. DraftKings is giving new users $150 in bonus bets after their first $5 wager, whereas BetMGM will give you up to $1,000 back on your first bet if it loses. Use our Best Sportsbooks page to see every offer you can use.

Understanding NBA Futures

If you’re unfamiliar, the term “futures market” refers to wagers you can place on outcomes that will happen further down the line, such as championships, division winners and award recipients. This can be one of the most profitable markets for bettors, as you’re traditionally capitalizing on plus-money odds and sometimes big longshots. Over the course of the season, any number of factors can influence futures odds, from small shifts to massive swings. Using those influencing factors and the posted odds, we can glean information to identify where we should be betting our money.

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Analyzing Warriors and Kings futures odds

The Kings are rapidly stomping out the Warriors’ title hopes as hard as Draymond Green stomped on Domantas Sabonis in Game 2. Both games have been close, but the Warriors’ poor shooting prevented them from evening up the series and stealing home-court advantage. Here’s how the Warriors and Kings stand in the futures market after two games:

Western Conference Winner Odds

 

NBA Title Odds

Not quite what you would expect to see for the team with a 2-0 series lead. The Kings are priced at +700 to win the Western Conference while the Warriors are more favored at +550. Beyond that, the Warriors are currently +1300 to win it all, while the Kings are +2300. Golden State faces an uphill battle to make it past the first round but the books are more confident in the Warriors’ chances beyond the opening series.

Why are the Warriors favored over the Kings?

Despite a 2-0 series lead in the first round, the Kings still have longer odds than the Warriors. This is likely indicative of the books being hesitant to offer too good of a price on the Warriors, who haven’t lost a Western Conference playoff series since the 2013-14 season. Additionally, even down two games, their implied probability to win at 15.38% is close to our model’s prediction of 14.0%.

On the other hand, the Kings have an implied probability of 12.5% based on their odds of +700, well over our model’s analysis of 5.9%. Based on those numbers, our fair price would be closer to +1600 for the Kings. Our model runs 1000s of simulations and predicts a tough road to the WCF and beyond for Sacramento, even if they stay the course and send the Warriors packing.

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In the NBA Finals market, the Warriors’ odds of +1300 are close enough to our probability of 6.5% to justify the price. This time, the Kings are more fairly priced than their Western Conference odds, as their +2300 odds more closely align with our model’s probability of 3.1%.

How to bet on Warriors and Kings futures

Backing the Kings: Sacramento has a major advantage with a 2-0 series lead, and their odds of +2300 to win it all make for a fair play. If you truly believe in the Kings as a contender to win in the Western Conference however, you can place a wager now at +700. This price will shorten if they inch closer to a Round 1 victory. But your best move might be to wait and see if the Warriors win a game or two, and then jump on the Kings’ shifting odds at a better value.

Backing the Warriors: Look, we all know who Golden State can be. When healthy and at their best, they contend with any team in the league. At +550 to win the Western Conference, their odds are fair but the value is middling. Besides, if you expect the Warriors to make it all the way to the NBA Finals, are you really not going to back them to win the whole thing? If you like Golden State, grab an NBA Champion ticket at +1300 before that price vanishes, or they stare down a 3-0 series deficit and your bet becomes a donation to the books.

Looking for more NBA betting insights? Head over to our Best Props and Best Bets pages to see the top value for daily action, or use our Best Trends feature to find your own plays to target. If you want to cook up a parlay for a larger payout, try our Parlay Picker tool to get creative! Everything we offer is completely free and powered by our state-of-the-art predictive analytics models that run 1000s of simulations to help you make the most informed betting decisions you can.