Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for MatchWeek 32

Let’s talk shop. Since my last article there have been 20 EPL games, which wouldn’t be so crazy except for the fact that it’s only been 7 days. Chaos abounds, particularly with the Title, Top 4, and relegation still very much in play. And, by the looks of it, nothing will be decided any time soon since nobody seems to want to grab the bull by the horns and claim victory.

Spurs and Villa both dropped points as they desperately stumble their way towards the Arsene Wenger Memorial Trophy (he’s not dead, but I like to pretend he is). The relegation sides, understandably, are teetering between being horrible and being so scared of relegation that they pick it up a notch.

And then there’s the title race, where none of the triumvirate of idiots in the race seem to be capable of finishing (nailed the double entendre). Look no further than Sunday’s house of horrors between Arsenal and City if you want proof, which was so dull that it made conversation with the distant relations at my Easter dinner seem like a better choice than watching. City were entirely incompetent offensively, while Arsenal performed their best Special One impression by parking a double decker bus in the box. Sure, it may have been a rational decision by Arteta, but fuck if it wasnt spineless from the HIGHEST SCORING TEAM IN THE EPL. God I fucking hate Arsenal so much….

Now, shall we gamble? We shall.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 32

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City: Saturday, April 6, 7:30 AM EST

If there’s one thing we learned this week, its that City will blow your doors off if you aren't capable of putting in 90 good minutes of defense. Villa, who simply don't play that way tactically, got torched for it, while Palace just aren't good enough to keep City off the board even if they tried to play defensively (which, at this point, is questionable given they have very little to play for).

So, rather than complicate things, I’m just going to bet “good team to score goals.” Simple. And simplicity is something I talk about often with fellow gamblers. For example, I was told Ryan Blaney to finish in the Top 5 on Sunday in NASCAR is a low fuss way to attack a high value racer. Do I know anything about racing? Fuck no. But I keep my ear to the ground for information with value, and I guess I’m sharing a NASCAR pick today by way of example (you’re welcome).

Here, the simplicity is betting one of the top teams in the world to score on a mediocre and unmotivated side. I don't often jump to the TT Over 2.5 number, but here I think its warranted. The biggest risk may be that City don't put the foot to the floor (keeping with the NASCAR theme) because of their Tuesday UCL fixture, but their bench has enough talent to do damage as well.

⛏️ Sam's Pick: City TT Over 2.5 (+132) - 1U

⚽️ MORE: Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City match prediction

Everton vs. Burnley: Saturday, April 6, 10:00 AM EST

This may not be the most exciting match, but it has two very important things going for it. One is the fact that Burnely cannot keep teams off the board to save their fucking lives. With 66 goals conceded in 31 matches their hopes of keeping a clean sheet are almost 0 (ironically). The second is the fact that they are almost to the point of no return for survival.

Burnley have about 5 “winnable” games left (using the term very generously for a team with 19 points through 31 games) and they need to make up a 6 point gap to avoid the drop. Its do or fucking die, and I expect them to start throwing everything they can at the wall in hopes of survival. Everton, meanwhile, havent won a fucking EPL match since December 16, the last time they played Burnley, and they are likely looking at this as a chance to finish off their own survival campaign before getting rid Dyche and his atrocious tactics.

With two sub par teams and a reasonable desire to go after this match on both sides, I think we see more chances than normal and Over 2.5 for the game total at -136 makes sense for the expected approach. The lack of clinical finishing on either end is a slight concern, but with a tie benefitting nobody I see more aggressive play throughout.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Over 2.5 (-136) - 1.36U

⚽️ MORE: Burnley vs. Everton match prediction

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