PGA Expert Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open Predictions & Best Bets

The PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on Thursday, February 9. This is one of the biggest non-major tournaments there is, so the stars will be out this weekend — and the fact that Sunday's Super Bowl LVII is also in Phoenix doesn't hurt. Keep reading for our best bets to win the tournament. Also, make sure you come to Dimers all golf season, as we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

RELATED: Check out our Dimers golf player rankings

PGA Tour Win Probabilities

2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Look for the 🔥 below, as that indicates a spot where the predictive analytics model has found value against the sportsbooks. To make things easy for you, we even list the best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open, down below.

PLAYER	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Rory McIlroy	13.8% 🔥	39.4% 🔥	54.9% 🔥
Jon Rahm	9.0%	29.7%	45.4%
Scottie Scheffler	6.3%	23.7%	37.7%
Tony Finau	6.1%	24.9% 🔥	39.9% 🔥
Xander Schauffele	6.0%	22.6%	36.6%
Patrick Cantlay	5.2%	20.5%	33.7%
Viktor Hovland	3.4%	16.4%	28.0%
Collin Morikawa	3.4%	15.3%	27.6%
Max Homa	2.9%	15.4%	27.4%
Sungjae Im	2.7%	13.8%	24.6%

PGA Tour Golf Best Bets

Waste Management Phoenix Open

Rory McIlroy (+800 at DraftKings) 

This is McIlroy's first tournament in the United States this year, and he's already listed as a co-favorite with Jon Rahm, who has been scorching hot since the calendar turned to 2023. And if you're wondering why, look no further than the fact that McIlroy is first in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) and is coming off a win in the 2023 Hero Dubai Desert Classic last week. 

Now, McIlroy's flight to Arizona was undoubtedly worse than most of the players in this field, but he has had a few days to get himself adjusted. And there's just no reason to believe he won't be in the hunt when Sunday rolls around. We're talking about a golfer with no holes in his game, and he'll be eager to make a splash in this star-studded event. With our model absolutely loving his chances, it's easy to back him at +800 odds. 

McIlroy will also have a little extra motivation heading into this one, as it's one of the few big tournaments that he has never won. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, McIlroy has a 13.8% chance to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a 39.4% chance to finish Top-5 and a 54.9% chance of finishing Top-10.

ALSO: Our PGA projections can give you head-to-head matchup predictions

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Tony Finau (+1600 at FanDuel) 

Finau is going to be the crowd favorite at TPC Scottsdale, as he lives in the area and will be hoping to cash in with the biggest win of his career this weekend. Finau was the runner-up here in 2020, when he lost to Webb Simpson in a playoff. But he knows the course extremely well and he's going to feel good about his chances of winning this one. 

This is a golf course that really favors the bold off the tee, and Finau is 13th in the world in strokes gained off the tee in the 2022-23 season. And that's no fluke either, as he was 15th in the world in that statistic last year. With that said, we expect Finau's driver to come in handy at this event, and he'll just need to find a way to calm his nerves and sink some putts this weekend. Considering he picked up some big wins to end 2023, we think he now has the confidence to do that. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Finau has a 6.1% chance to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a 24.9% chance to finish Top-5 and a 39.9% chance of finishing Top-10.

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Rickie Fowler (+6500 at DraftKings) 

Fowler is not a pick that our model likes this weekend, but it's just really hard not to throw a little something on him here. Sure, it's very unlikely that the 34-year-old will actually come through with a victory at this event, but this has been a tournament that he has been remarkable at throughout his career. 

Not only did Fowler win the Waste Management Phoenix Open in 2019, but he he was also a runner-up in 2010 and 2016. It's just super tough to ignore that type of success on a golf course, and Fowler has also made strides with his play after a couple of tough years. He finished tied for 54th at The American Express in the middle of January, and he followed it up by tying for 11th at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. 

Fowler's swing just looks a lot better than it did when he lost his way in recent years, and he's worth a flier at this event. This golf course has been magical for him in the past, and these odds make for a fun bet. 

According to our golf predictive analytics model, Fowler has a 0.5% chance to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a 3.0% chance to finish Top-5 and a 7.0% chance of finishing Top-10.