North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction: Texas State Predicted to Win First Responder Bowl [2025]

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Written by Mac Douglass

Our expert prediction for Friday's North Texas vs Texas State matchup.

North Texas-Texas State Predictions and Game Preview.
Gerald J. Ford Stadium sets the stage for the college football matchup between North Texas and Texas State this Friday.

Texas State will face North Texas in the 2025 First Responder Bowl at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Friday, starting at 4:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced college football model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts Texas State as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Employing the latest data, our experts simulated Friday's North Texas-Texas State game 10,000 times," said Ryan Leaver from Dimers.

"After computing the latest updates and thousands of other inputs, we predict Texas State's chance of winning is 79%, while North Texas' is 21%."

For a closer look at Friday's matchup, including the predicted score, best bets and an expanded look at the predicted final score, visit our interactive North Texas vs. Texas State predictions page.

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North Texas vs. Texas State Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

Friday's college football matchup between Texas State and North Texas at Gerald J. Ford Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:00PM ET.

Dimers.com's comprehensive preview of Friday's North Texas vs. Texas State matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any North Texas vs. Texas State picks, be sure to check out the latest college football predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

First Responder Bowl Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Spread?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of the 2025 First Responder Bowl 10,000 times as part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Texas State a 79% chance of defeating North Texas. Our predicted final score has Texas State winning 40-25.

According to our model, North Texas (+15.5) has a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 66.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Pre-Game Probabilities
Last Updated: 8:40PM, Jan 3
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
North Texas
North Texas +15.5
51%
49%
Get the best bets with Dimers Pro
See Matchup
Texas State
North Texas NTX
North Texas +15.5
51%
49%
See Matchup
Texas State TXST
Get the best bets with Dimers Pro

First Responder Bowl Odds

We have sourced the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type North Texas Texas State
Spread +15.5 (-108) -15.5 (-110)
Moneyline +480 -650
Total o66.5 (-110) u66.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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North Texas vs. Texas State Picks

Our model's biggest edge in today's North Texas vs. Texas State matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best college football picks for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict Texas State, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat North Texas on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate North Texas vs. Texas State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on College Football

Keep up with the latest college football betting news, college football best bets and CFB parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our College Football National Championship odds provide the most up-to-date predictions for the national title game and major conferences.

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Written by
Mac Douglass
Senior Editor

Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.

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