Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Thursday, September 14

Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine combined with strong MLB betting trends to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit. You can find all of our home run props with an edge in our best MLB props today section.

However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR parlay picks.

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Home Run Cheat Sheet

For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:

• Today’s Starting Pitchers and their HR allowed data
• Hot hitters – most HR over last # of days
• The worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
• Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR and batting history

Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our MLB prop bets which continuously update throughout the day, as well as our Best Bets Today in All Sports for Thursday, September 14.

🎯 Dinger Targets

Today’s starting pitchers with their total home runs and home runs per 9 allowed this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.

PITCHER	OPPONENT	HR ALLOWED	IP	HR/9
CHW : Jose Urena (R) 0-5, ERA 8.46	MIN Twins	9	22.1	3.67
COL : Chase Anderson (R) 0-5, ERA 6.49	SF Giants	17	68	2.25
MIN : Kenta Maeda (R) 4-7, ERA 4.65	CHI White Sox	15	89	1.52
MIA : Eury Perez (R) 5-4, ERA 2.90	MIL Brewers	14	83.2	1.51
NYY : Clarke Schmidt (R) 9-8, ERA 4.54 (Game 2***)	BOS Red Sox	20	140.2	1.28
DET : Reese Olson (R) 3-7, ERA 4.50	CIN Reds	12	86	1.26
BOS : Tanner Houck (R) 4-9, ERA 5.28 (Game 1***)	NY Yankees	12	87	1.24
WSH : Josiah Gray (R) 7-11, ERA 4.13	PIT Pirates	19	141.2	1.21
MIL : Adrian Houser (R) 5-4, ERA 4.58	MIA Marlins	12	90.1	1.20
PIT : Mitch Keller (R) 11-9, ERA 4.23	WSH Nationals	22	174.2	1.14
CIN : Derek Law (R) 4-4, ERA 3.83	DET Tigers	6	49.1	1.10
ARI : Merrill Kelly (R) 11-6, ERA 3.27	NY Mets	17	154	0.99
SF : Logan Webb (R) 10-12, ERA 3.54	COL Rockies	20	193	0.93
TOR : Kevin Gausman (R) 11-8, ERA 3.28	TEX Rangers	17	167.1	0.92
NYM : Kodai Senga (R) 10-7, ERA 3.07	ARI D-Backs	14	149.1	0.85
BAL : Kyle Bradish (R) 11-6, ERA 3.03	TB Rays	13	145.2	0.81
NYY : Michael King (R) 4-4, ERA 2.82 (Game 1***)	BOS Red Sox	7	83	0.76
TEX : Nathan Eovaldi (R) 11-4, ERA 2.90	TOR Blue Jays	10	127.1	0.71
TB : Aaron Civale (R) 7-3, ERA 2.96	BAL Orioles	8	112.2	0.64
BOS : TBD (Game 2***)	NY Yankees			0.00

MORE: MLB Game-By-Game Predictions

🔥 Hot Hitters 

These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.

BATTER	TIMEFRAME (LAST # OF DAYS)	HR
T. Turner (PHI)	Last 30	14
K. Schwarber (PHI)	Last 30	13
J. Rodriguez (SEA)	Last 30	11
M. Ozuna (ATL)	Last 30	10
R. Acuna Jr. (ATL)	Last 30	10
B. Harper (PHI)	Last 30	10
P. Alonso (NYM)	Last 30	9
A. Judge (NYY)	Last 30	9
S. Torkelson (DET)	Last 30	9
M. Garver (TEX)	Last 30	9
D. Stewart (NYM)	Last 30	9
M. Olson (ATL)	Last 7	4
L. O'Hoppe (LAA)	Last 7	4

💥 Down Bad Bullpens

Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!

TEAM	RANK	HR ALLOWED
WSH Nationals	1st	84
TEX Rangers	2nd	81
OAK Athletics	3rd	75
KC Royals	4th	74
BOS Red Sox	T-5th	73
LA Angels	T-5th	73
CHI White Sox	7th	72

MORE: Today's Hottest MLB Trends

🤝 Hello, Old Friend

These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Players with just one home run will typically require a minimum of 10 PAs and a .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.

BATTER	OPP. PITCHER	PLATE APPEARANCES	HR	AVG
P. Alonso (NYM)	M. Kelly (ARI)	13	3	.308
D. LeMahieu (NYY)	C. Sale (BOS)	10	3	.700
C. Biggio (TOR)	N. Eovaldi (TEX)	8	2	.286
T. Estrada (SF)	C. Anderson (COL)	5	2	.400
R. Arozarena (TB)	K. Bradish (BAL)	12	2	.273
R. Devers (BOS)	M. King (NYY)	7	2	.667
C. Mullins (BAL)	A. Civale (TB)	6	2	.667
R. Mountcastle (BAL)	A. Civale (TB)	6	2	.833

*Designates potential starters not yet confirmed

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