Paige Bueckers WNBA Rookie of the Year Watch: Can Anyone Challenge the No. 1 Overall Pick?

This year's WNBA Rookie of the Year race has started off very similar to last year's when Caitlin Clark entered the league. After being selected No. 1 overall in the WNBA Draft, Dallas Wings rookie Paige Bueckers opened at -310 to win the WNBA Rookie of the Year award. Now, she's a -1000 favorite, no better than -700 at sportsbooks.

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Now, we all know what Clark did - she dominated the league with record-setting numbers, turned the Fever into a postseason contender and ran away with the Rookie of the Year award in a two-player race that was never truly close.

This season, Bueckers is off to a similar trajectory in the awards market, seemingly shutting all others out of the conversation. However, she' entered the league's concussion protocol which will force her to miss at minimum two games before she's reevaluated following the Wings' game vs. the Storm on Tuesday.

As Bueckers is such a heavy favorite, these next two games while she's sidelined, could make a dent in the odds market. Though it won't shake it up completely, we could see some of the other "contenders" creep a little closer and like any awards race, the second-favorite is an injury away from becoming the favorite - just look at the MVP market with Caitlin Clark sidelined.

Can Anyone Catch Paige Bueckers for WNBA Rookie of the Year?

We'll take a look at the WNBA Rookie of the Year market and compare our Dimers projections, team outlooks and early-season averages to see if there's any sneaky value play, or if this is award is as ruanway as it seems after two weeks.

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Analyzing WNBA Rookie of the Year Contenders

Paige Bueckers (Dallas Wings) -1000

Through six games in her rookie season, Bueckers is averaging 14.7 points, 6.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.0 steals. This is about in line with Dimers' average projections of 16.2 points, 4.6 assists and 3.4 rebounds through her six games played.

Her 34 minutes and assists are a team high, while she ranks second in scoring and third in rebounds on a team with not much else going right for them. Even star Arike Ogunbowale has gotten off to a slow start compared to her usual output.

Not only is Bueckers Rookie of the Year material, she's clearly the MVP of this team. That kind of pedigree puts everyone at a disadvantage even if they have a comparable season to Bueckers.

The Wings struggled mightily in the first game without Bueckers, losing to the Chicago Sky and unable to replicate her production on offense. The sportsbook apps actually moved her from -900 to -1000 after this game, while the other contenders shortened up about +100 to +200 each.

Sonia Citron (Washington Mystics) +900

Second on the odds board is Washington Mystics rookie Sonia Citron, the third overall pick of the draft out of Notre Dame and, when using a BetMGM Sportsbook bonus code, odds of +900.

Citron has played in every game for the Mystics so far, with her production mirroring that of her college stats, recording 14.3 points, 2.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds. 

She's surpassing the scoring expectations by our model, which has projected her for an average of 9.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists.

Her number could be even higher as she's had a few games where her FG% struggled, but overall, Citron is not only powering the Mystics to a competitive start - three of four losses by a combined 11 points - but is putting herself in the Rookie of the Year mix where a slight uptick in production and a potential extended absence for Bueckers could tighten up the race.

Add in that the Mystics are presently inside the playoff picture after finishing just 14-26 last year, and Citron deserves more than a little credit. Currently Washington is +155 to reach the postseason compared to +280 for Dallas.

Janelle Salaun (Golden State Valkyries) +1400

The WNBA's newest franchise has their own rookie sitting top 3 in the odds board after the first couple of weeks.

French forward Janelle Salaun went undrafted in 2023 and signed a camp deal with the Valkyries this year, finishing her international play over in Italy before joining the Golden State roster.

Through five games, Salaun is averaging 12.0 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists. She's had two games with 18 points, including an 18-13 double double, the first in franchise history in a loss to the Liberty last week.

Salaun has displayed her upside and if she's putting up consistent double doubles or close to it, there could be some movement here. She's not contributing on defense like Bueckers, but it's not unreasonable for her to be outperforming the No. 1 overall pick in points and rebounds before midseason.

A longshot to reach the postseason at +1200, if the Valkyries can pull it off in the inaugural season, Salaun deserves to be shorter than +1400 down the line.

Kiki Iriafen (Washington Mystics) +1800

In our opinion, if there is any player poised to contend with Bueckers for Rookie of the Year, it's the Mystics' other top rookie, Kiki Iriafen, who' averaging 13.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.0 assists, compared to the Dimers projections of 14.5 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists.

The Mystics took three players in the top six picks of the WNBA draft, selecting Iriafen one pick immediately after Citron. Iriafen came in from USC pro-ready at the rim and we're seeing that already.

The Mystics were dead-last in rebounds last season and they're fourth in the league through seven games played this year. Iriafen is  top-four rebounder, and has tallied four double doubles in her seven games, scoring double-digit points in every single game. In 2023, Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas set the WNBA single-season record of 28 double doubles. The season is longer now, but Iriafen is on pace for 25 right now, which would pass the record of 23 set in 2024 by Angel Reese. If she's close, then her production can't be ignored. 

The biggest issue for Iriafen is that she's not only contending with Bueckers for Rookie of the Year, but with her teammate, Sonia Citron. Iriafen is outproducing Citron and should realistically be ahead of her based off the numbers on paper. Should the Mystics reach the postseason and Iriafen reach Top 20 scoring numbers (she's 27th), she should be right there with Bueckers.

Everyone Else (+25000 or longer)

This is where the list drops off heavily - everyone here is +25000 or longer, even with a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code - and unlikely to climb the board high enough to be in the mix or a finalist for the award come voting season.

Here's a quick look at the players down the board:

• Aneesah Morrow (Sun) +25000
• Domonique Malonga (Storm) +20000
• Hailey Van Lith (Sky) +25000
• Saniyah Rivers (Sun) +25000
• Te-Hina Paopao (Dream)  +25000

Takeaway: Bueckers Likely to Win, But Not a Runaway Like Last Season

As it stands, it seems Bueckers is in the driver's seat based on her odds, perceived upside and inherent voter bias that comes with being the No. 1 overall pick and a generational talent.

However, one injury or cold streak is all it takes to shake things up and thrust a longshot to the top of the board and for that reason, we think it's worth a little sprinkle on Iriafen to win. Just look at what's happening in the WNBA MVP race, where Caitlin Clark's expected four-game absence, has shifted her from -115 to +360, and Napheesa Collier now leads at -260.

Iriafan has the best case out of the three rookies not priced at wildly long odds and could pass her teammate Citron before long, especially if she continues to put up elite rookie rebounding numbers.

At the very least, this is a race to monitor over the coming weeks - Iriafen was +2000 just prior to Bueckers hitting the concussion protocol.

To get all of our best bets, props and projections on Paige Bueckers, Kiki Iriafen and the rest of the 2025 WNBA rookie class, sign up for Dimers Pro today and save 20% off your first month code 20BASKETBALL.

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