Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Ben Shelton will square off with Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Sunday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Ben Shelton as the most likely winner in this Shelton vs. Tsitsipas prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Shelton vs. Tsitsipas prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Shelton-Tsitsipas men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Shelton a 74% chance of defeating Tsitsipas in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Shelton has a 69% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shelton (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 41.5 games has a 61% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas +245, Ben Shelton -303
• First Set: Shelton -200, Tsitsipas +162

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Tsitsipas @ +245 via DraftKings
• First Set: Tsitsipas @ -133 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
• Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Ben Shelton, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at the US Open 2026.

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