Chiefs vs. Dolphins: NFL Week 3 Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction for Sunday, September 27, 2026. Win probabilities, projected final score, current odds, and picks from our NFL machine learning models.
NFL
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NFL
Chiefs
Predicted score
28
:
17
Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium
Pre-Game Probabilities Last Update:

Spread

Chiefs -10.5
Spread
  • Chiefs
    50.6%
    PolymarketPolymarket
  • Dolphins
    49.4%
    NovigNovig
Player Props
Chiefs
Probability
  • Kenneth Walker
    53.7%
  • Rashee Rice
    36.0%
  • Xavier Worthy
    31.4%
  • Travis Kelce
  • Patrick Mahomes
Dolphins
Probability
  • De'Von Achane
    40.3%
  • Malik Willis
    26.1%
  • Malik Washington
    23.9%
  • Caleb Douglas
  • Greg Dulcich
Projected Player Stats
Chiefs Starting QB
PlayerProj. Yards
P. Mahomes
Dolphins Starting QB
PlayerProj. Yards
M. Willis
Chiefs Rushing
PlayerTouchdown %TD%Proj. Yards
K. Walker
P. Mahomes
E. Johnson
Dolphins Rushing
PlayerTouchdown %TD%Proj. Yards
D. Achane
M. Willis
O. Gordon
Chiefs Receiving
PlayerTouchdown %TD%Proj. Yards
X. Worthy
R. Rice
T. Kelce
T. Thornton
K. Walker
Dolphins Receiving
PlayerTouchdown %TD%Proj. Yards
M. Washington
C. Douglas
D. Achane
G. Dulcich
C. Bell

Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: NFL Week 3

  • Teams: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
  • Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
  • Time: 1:00PM ET
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Chiefs (-11.5, +100), Dolphins (+11.5, -108)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -660, Dolphins +400
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points (+100/-108)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Chiefs: 81.9%
  • Dolphins: 18.1%

These probabilities come from two machine learning models that assess more than 100 data points for each NFL matchup, combining their outputs to project all our major betting markets.

Projected final score

Our predicted final score for this NFL matchup is Chiefs 28-17 Dolphins.

This prediction draws on each team's scoring trends and player stats, weighed across both of our data models

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

The numbers give the Chiefs a win probability of 81.9%, while the Dolphins have a win probability of 18.1%.

Summary

The Chiefs face off against the Dolphins in the NFL at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, September 27, 2026.

Our Chiefs vs. Dolphins predictions, built on real-time data and matchup-specific modeling, help guide your decisions.. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NFL predictions and the best NFL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NFL props, NFL futures, NFL odds, and the latest NFL news.