NFL Week 16 First and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions [2023]

The NFL is back for another big week, and our team of data analysts has run thousands of data-driven simulations of each Week 16 game to determine which players are most likely to score a touchdown and which are the best TD bets to make.

This week’s NFL slate features offensive stars such as Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall and Jalen Hurts, with each of these guys projected to have a high probability of getting in for six for their respective teams in Week 16.

In this article, you will find the following for this week's games:

• First touchdown scorer predictions
• Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Touchdown scorer prop bets

This week's TD scorers are brought to you by Bet365, where new users can secure $150 in bonus bets just for betting $5 on any of the below players to score in Week 16.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions - NFL Week 16, 2023

As part of our NFL predictions for Week 16, our supercomputer has discovered the most likely players to score a touchdown across all of this week’s matchups.

Player (Team)	Anytime Touchdown Probability
Christian McCaffrey (49ers)	70.2%
Breece Hall (Jets)	57.7%
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)	57.0%
Tony Pollard (Cowboys)	54.9%
Raheem Mostert (Dolphins)	52.5%
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)	49.8%
Derrick Henry (Titans)	49.4%
Justin Fields (Bears)	49.2%
Bijan Robinson (Falcons)	48.6%
David Montgomery (Lions)	48.0%

First Touchdown Predictions - NFL Week 16, 2023

As well as providing you with the players who are most likely to score an anytime touchdown, DimersBOT also has the 10 players most likely to score the first touchdown in their respective games across all of the Week 16 NFL action.

Player (Team)	First Touchdown Probability
Christian McCaffrey (49ers)	20.0%
Breece Hall (Jets)	18.4%
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)	15.3%
Javonte Williams (Broncos)	14.4%
Courtland Sutton (Broncos)	14.0%
Rachaad White (Buccaneers)	13.1%
Derrick Henry (Titans)	13.0%
Tony Pollard (Cowboys)	13.0%
Garrett Wilson (Jets)	12.8%
David Montgomery (Lions)	11.6%

Keep in mind that these lists only show the players most likely to score an anytime or first touchdown in NFL Week 16, which does not necessarily mean that our model recommends betting on them.

To increase your chances of winning, it's important to look out for the best odds available, as well as checking out our recommended bets below.

NFL Touchdown Best Bets and Round Robin Parlay - Week 16, 2023

Our model is constantly working to discover edges in all of the major NFL props markets, including first and anytime touchdown scorers!

For our recommended Week 16 TD scorer bets, see the five plays below. We recommend playing these in a Round Robin Parlay, betting the x3, x4 and full five-leg combos. A $5 bet on the five-leg parlay alone would pay out  $3,962.16 if all five hit, with the lowest possible x3 combo coming in at +3770 odds.

Michael Pittman Anytime TD Scorer (+195)

• Odds: +195 via FanDuel
• Probability: 49.7%
• Edge: 15.8%
• Game: Colts vs. Falcons (1:00PM ET)

The highest edge for a TD prop this weekend is Michael Pittman to score when the Colts take on the Falcons in Atlanta. Pittman took a hard hit in Week 15 but has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play. His 49.7% probability identified by our model reveals a substantial edge of 15.8% against his +195 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Garrett Wilson Anytime TD Scorer (+220)

• Odds: +220 via FanDuel
• Probability: 45.5%
• Edge: 14.3%
• Game: Commanders vs. Jets (1:00PM ET)

Our model has identified another strong TD edge of the weekend in Jets WR Garrett Wilson to score a touchdown against the Washington Commanders' bottom-tier passing defense that allows the most yards and touchdowns through the air. DimersBOT has found an edge of 14.3% against these +220 odds on FanDuel. 

Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+310)

• Odds: +310 via FanDuel
• Probability: 36.5%
• Edge: 121%
• Game: Browns vs. Texans (1:00PM ET)

The next touchdown prop our model favors this weekend is for Texans WR Nico Collins to score. Collins exited his last game in Week 14 early and is questionable for Sunday, but he has said that he expects to play. Collins has been a go-to threat for the Texans this year and while he's expected to get targets from backup Case Keenum, DimersBOT finds a 26.5% probability of him finding the endzone, giving us a 12.1% edge in his odds of +310 on FanDuel.

Kyler Murray Anytime TD Scorer (+310)

• Odds: +310 via FanDuel
• Probability: 27.2%
• Edge: 2.8%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Bears (4:25PM ET)

Pivoting to the later afternoon slate, DimerBOT has found a touchdown prop worth betting in the Cardinals vs. Bears matchup. Quarterback Kyler Murray scored in three straight games after returning from injury, but not in his last two. He gets a 27.2% touchdown probability from our model, identifying a small edge of 2.8% in his +310 odds on FanDuel. 

Tyjae Spears Anytime TD Scorer (+400)

• Odds: +400 via DraftKings
• Probability: 28.4%
• Edge: 8.4%
• Game: Seahawks vs. Titans (1:00PM ET)

The final touchdown prop our model has identified is a longer odds play but has some solid value. The bet is on Titans RB2 Tyjae Spears to score an anytime touchdown against the Seahawks. Spears has seen a snap share rivaling or besting Derrick Henry in recent weeks and will face a Seattle defense allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns per game this season. DimersBOT calculates a 28.4% probability with a solid 8.4% edge against his odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

You can unlock an incredible reward of $200 in bonus bets by placing a simple $5 wager on one of this week's NFL touchdown picks (including a parlay) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Click ➡️ here ⬅️ to get started!

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best NFL odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

Today's NFL Touchdown Betting Picks - Week 16, 2023

This NFL touchdown scorer article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NFL touchdown scorer predictions for Week 16, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control is performed to ensure the content meets our editorial standards.

All of Dimers' NFL first and anytime touchdown picks and predictions for Week 16 have been generated thanks to thousands of data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate NFL predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use this week's NFL touchdown scorer picks for your personal gambling, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively, keeping in mind that prop bets, including TD scorers, often have higher odds and therefore less of a chance of winning than most straight up plays.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

More About NFL

This article is part of our NFL player props and NFL best bets series.

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