NBA First Basket Predictions, Odds and Value Bets Today - Thursday 3/21/2024

We have another action-packed day of NBA basketball upon us, and we've simulated every matchup 10,000 times to find the most reliable NBA first basket predictions and odds for Thursday, March 21, 2024.

Thursday's NBA slate features big names such as Jalen Brunson, De'Aaron Fox and Giannis Antetokounmpo, each with a high chance of scoring the first basket when they take to the court.

NBA first basket props have become one of the most popular options for basketball bettors to wager on, and by using Thursday's data-driven NBA predictions below, you can gain an edge over other bettors.

This article will provide you with a list of players that our predictive analytics model has identified as NBA first basket value bets for today's action, as well as the players who are most likely to score the first basket on March 21.

For today's full list of NBA prop picks, sign up to Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!

Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight: March 21, 2024

Thanks to simulating each one of Thursday's NBA games 10,000 times each, Dimers has determined the 10 players most likely to score the first basket in their respective games.

Player (Team)	First Basket Probability
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)	18.5%
De'Aaron Fox (Kings)	15.5%
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)	15.4%
Zion Williamson (Pelicans)	15.4%
Jalen Green (Rockets)	14.8%
Dejounte Murray (Hawks)	14.4%
Luka Doncic (Mavericks)	14.1%
Nikola Vucevic (Bulls)	13.8%
Paolo Banchero (Magic)	13.4%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)	13.4%

According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across all of today's games is Jalen Brunson, with a probability of 18.5%.

Additionally, the players with the next highest likelihood of scoring the first basket today are De'Aaron Fox, with a 15.5% probability, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, with a 15.4% probability. Remember, although this list shows the players most likely to score the first basket on Thursday, it does not always indicate they are suggested bets according to DimersBOT.

To increase your chances of winning when betting on NBA props, it's important to keep an eye on the best odds available.

Best First Basket Picks Today: Thursday 3/21/2024

After simulating the outcome of today's NBA matchups 10K times each, our predictive model has generated the best NBA first basket betting picks for Thursday.

1. De'Aaron Fox To Score First Basket (+800)

• Odds: +800
• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 15.5%
• Game: Kings vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate, which is in the game between the Kings and Wizards. The bet is on De'Aaron Fox (SAC) at odds of +800 with FanDuel Sportsbook, and our model has found an edge of 4.4%.

The next two suggested bets are for De'Andre Hunter (4.0% edge) to score first in the Hawks vs. Suns game and Dejounte Murray (3.9%) to score the first basket, also in the Hawks-Suns matchup.

2. De'Andre Hunter To Score First Basket (+1200)

• Odds: +1200
• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 11.6%
• Matchup: Hawks vs. Suns (10:30PM ET)

The next best NBA first basket bet for today comes in the Hawks vs. Suns game, where our model has found an edge of 4.0% on De'Andre Hunter (ATL) at odds of +1200 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

**MORE: [Thursday's Best NBA Bets](https://www.dimers.com/news/nba-picks-today-and-best-bets-thursday-3212024]

3. Dejounte Murray To Score First Basket (+850)

• Odds: +850
• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 14.4%
• Matchup: Hawks vs. Suns (10:30PM ET)

Our next NBA first basket bet on Thursday comes in the Hawks vs. Suns game, where our model has found an edge of 3.9% on Dejounte Murray (ATL) at odds of +850 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

**MORE: [Thursday's NBA Prop Picks](https://www.dimers.com/news/nba-picks-today-and-best-bets-thursday-march-21-2024]

4. Jalen Brunson To Score First Basket (+550)

• Odds: +550
• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 18.5%
• Game: Knicks vs. Nuggets (9:00PM ET)

The next best first basket bet for Thursday's NBA action comes in the Knicks vs. Nuggets game, where our model has found an edge of 3.1% on Jalen Brunson (NY) at odds of +550 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

5. Keyonte George To Score First Basket (+900)

• Odds: +900
• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 12.2%
• Matchup: Jazz vs. Mavericks (8:30PM ET)

Rounding out Dimers' top five NBA first basket bets for Thursday is Keyonte George (UTA) at odds of +900 in the Jazz vs. Mavericks game. Here, our model has found an edge of 2.2% with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's NBA Games

For more NBA picks and props, check out our full betting previews for each game on the Thursday slate:

• Kings vs. Wizards Prediction (7:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Bulls vs. Rockets Prediction (8:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Jazz vs. Mavericks Prediction (8:30PM ET, Thursday)
• Knicks vs. Nuggets Prediction (9:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Hawks vs. Suns Prediction (10:30PM ET, Thursday)

Understanding Betting Edge

The "edge" at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

Today's NBA First Basket Picks: March 21, 2024

This NBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NBA first basket picks for March 21, 2024, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control is performed to ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.

All of Dimers' NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, March 21, are generated after rigorous data-driven game simulations, giving you reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use today's NBA first basket predictions for your personal gambling, it's crucial that you practice responsible gambling and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

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