College Football Overreactions: Is It Time to Trust Colorado?

Week 2 of College Football has come to a close and there are plenty of takeaways worth noting. We consulted our CFB championship futures model to find the highest-edge and best college football bets to place on a trio of teams with notable results. Here are Dimers' biggest betting takeaways after College Football Week 2.

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College Football Week 2 Overreactions

1. "Colorado Is For Real"

The biggest story in the college football world is clearly Colorado - as Deion Sanders has taken a middling program and taken them immediately to relevance. Honestly, even higher than relevance, more like prominence. Sanders' son Shadeur looks like an NFL quarterback, dissecting TCU and Nebraska in back to back weeks and Travis Hunter is a legitimate Heisman candidate playing both sides of the ball.

So should you rush to bet them in the Futures market?

Not so fast. As far as our college football predictions go, DimersBOT isn't buying the Buffs as one of our best bets just yet. Colorado has just the 7th-highest probability to win the conference, with just a 1.0% likelihood of winning the Pac-12 championship. At +1800 odds currently, the Buffs are valued as the 5th-most likely champ, ahead of teams with a higher probability to win like UCLA and Washington State. 

VERDICT: False - our model does not recommend betting Colorado in the Futures market.

MORE: Get the best College Football prop bets

2. "Alabama Is Dead"

Nick Saban shocked everyone last weekend, losing to Quinn Ewers and Texas at home in Tuscaloosa as a heavy-favorite. Quarterback play appears to be a problem, as the Tide's starter Jalen Milroe struggled and threw a game-clinching pick six late in the second half. It is important to note that Texas is one of our model's favorites right now, so it's not like Alabama lost to some nobodies.

But should you stay away from Alabama after their loss?

DimersBOT sees significant value buying the dip on Alabama. Despite the loss to Texas, Bama has actually risen from the pack in their likelihood to make it out of the SEC West. The Tide currently have a 23% likelihood to win the SEC, and when compared to LSU's 11%, it becomes clear that Bama is still the biggest threat to de-throne Georgia. Even after the Texas loss, Alabama is priced nearly identically to the Longhorns according to DimersBOT - as both have a 3% chance to win the national title. Don't sell your Alabama stock just yet - there's plenty of season left for Nick Saban to get things on track.

VERDICT: False - our model still sees value on Alabama in the Futures market

MORE: Get free parlay picks for College Football

3. "Michigan Is In Trouble"

One of the loudest narratives in Big Ten country over the last few weeks has been Michigan's inability to blow out cupcake teams with the same style points that they did last season. On paper, the Wolverines are loaded - with Heisman candidate running back Black Corum back in maize and blue alongside JJ McCarthy and Donovan Edwards. While Jim Harbaugh remains out due to suspension, there's plenty of time left for Michigan to fire on all cylinders.

So should you trust the Wolverines?

DimersBOT is actually buying Michigan more now than it did before the season. Heading into the year, our model rated Michigan and Ohio State nearly identically with chances to win the Big Ten. After two weeks, Michigan has created some separation atop the conference with a 35% probability to win the Big Ten Championship and Ohio State has fallen all the way down to just 27%. You can still get Michigan at +180 odds to win the Big Ten, which may not remain once Jim Harbaugh returns. Michigan is also the second-most likely national champion according to our model. Stay strong, Wolverines fans!

VERDICT: False - our model sees significant value on Michigan in the Futures market